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recent threat by the United States to impose sanctions on financial institutions engaged in business with Russia has led to a slowdown in Turkish-Russian trade, affecting payments for both imported oil and Turkish exports, according to seven sources familiar with the matter.

The U.S. executive order issued in December did not specifically target the energy sector, but it has complicated payments related to Turkish imports of Russian crude and Russian payments for a broader range of Turkish exports. The sanctions aim to reduce Kremlin revenue and disrupt its activities in Ukraine without impeding Russian oil flows to global markets.

While the threat has not disrupted Turkey’s crude supplies significantly, some delays and disruptions in payments have occurred, particularly due to Turkish banks reviewing business relationships and tightening compliance with Russian clients. Russia, a major crude and diesel exporter to Turkey, has faced similar payment problems with other countries, affecting oil supplies to India and complicating those to the United Arab Emirates and China.

Complexity to the trade relationship

Russian President Vladimir Putin and Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan have been working to maintain close ties, with Ankara opposing Western sanctions on Moscow. However, the recent threat of secondary U.S. sanctions on Turkish banks and companies has added complexity to the trade relationship.

The disruption in payments began after the U.S. executive order on December 22, raising concerns among Turkish banks about potential risks associated with doing business with Russia. Turkish exports to Russia in January saw a 39% year-on-year decline, while imports from Russia fell 20.2%. The impact has been more prominent in non-oil trade, with exports of machinery, in particular, coming to a halt.

Turkish banks are said to be taking “extremely meticulous” measures regarding sanctions, with compliance departments closely scrutinizing transactions. The U.S. State Department expressed encouragement for reports that Turkish banks are reviewing and tightening their compliance programs for Russian clients, emphasizing the responsibility of foreign financial institutions to avoid processing transactions benefiting Russia’s military or circumventing U.S. measures.

Heightened restrictions

Additionally, two other Turkish banks have reportedly issued 30-day closure notices to Russian corporate clients who had opened accounts following Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. The affected businesses include those using Turkey as a transit jurisdiction for settlements and deliveries, along with oil and gas traders, according to Iskander Mirgalimov, an international payments consultant for Russian businesses.

Individual clients are also facing heightened restrictions, including the necessity to maintain a higher account balance, as Turkish banks adjust their practices in line with increased scrutiny and compliance requirements.

These developments mark the latest impact of the U.S. sanctions threat on Turkish-Russian economic relations, adding further complexity to the financial landscape between the two countries. The situation continues to evolve, with potential consequences for businesses and individuals engaged in cross-border transactions.

Source: Reuters

Ever wondered why the prices of commodities keep rising? In the realm of commerce, the change of prices is a constant. However, when the prices of a multitude of goods and services rise collectively, a phenomenon known as inflation emerges.  If you feel like your money doesn’t stretch as far as it used to, that’s the erosion of currency value over time that we call inflation. But here is the twist – even when inflation is slowing down, prices aren’t necessarily falling; but rather, increasing at a slower pace.

Recent times have witnessed a noteworthy shift in economic discourse, marked by a renewed concern over inflation. After a prolonged period of perplexity surrounding persistently low inflation, the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic instigated a substantial departure, introducing an era characterized by stubbornly high inflation. This surge in prices is linked to various factors.

These factors for the inflationary trend can be interpreted along the lines of supply and demand. On the supply side, disruptions stemming from COVID-19, such as logistical challenges and workforce shortages, converged with spikes in energy and food prices induced by geopolitical events, notably the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Simultaneously, on the demand side, substantial financial injections into households and enterprises by governments during the pandemic aimed at mitigating the impacts of lockdowns and layoffs resulted in an increased money supply, potentially contributing to the inflationary surge.

This economic shift, has exacerbated financial burden as a result of pivotal commodities experiencing substantial price increments—such as housing, energy, and food, particularly for those whose income has not kept pace with inflation. In many countries around the world, peaking inflation had threatened governments with social unrest, noteably in Sri Lanka ,Pakistan and numerous countries in Latin America, as well as protests in relatively high income countries like the U.K.

As inflation persists, in this month’s book bundle we examine books that demystify inflation, delve into unexplored trends, address common policy mishaps, and offer solutions to aid both policymakers and citizens to sustainably navigate these seemingly precarious times.

Inflation: What It Is, Why It’s Bad, and How to Fix It unravels the complexities of the most significant inflationary upheaval in over four decades, a phenomenon that has gripped headlines and left many grappling with the tangible impacts on their finances. Against the backdrop of the cost-of-living surge triggered by the COVID pandemic, the book sounds the alarm about the potential resurgence of a “Great Inflation,” with some observers expressing concerns of an even more ominous descent into hyperinflation that has historically devastated nations.

In response, the authors, Steve Forbes, Nathan Lewis, and Elizabeth Ames, engage readers in a captivating discussion that not only answers pressing questions but also charts a course for preparing for an uncertain future.

The authors draw on their expertise—Forbes as the chairman of Forbes Media, Lewis as an internationally recognized authority on money and taxation, and Ames as an accomplished author and journalist—to challenge prevailing misperceptions that have contributed to the current crisis.

They confront the widely held belief that central banks can spur prosperity by conjuring money “out of thin air” and debunk the notion that a certain level of economic “stability” necessitates “a little inflation.” These ideas, treated as sacrosanct in Washington for decades, are scrutinized in detail in Inflation exposing why they are flawed and how they have fueled the existing challenges.

The book critically examines the heedless money-printing and underscores the perilous path such policies could lead us down. Through a compelling blend of examples drawn from contemporary headlines and historical episodes, Inflation offers a real-world exploration of the subject, directly addressing the everyday concerns of individuals dealing with the tangible consequences of rising prices. Moreover, the authors provide practical steps that readers can take to protect their wealth.

Steve Forbes, Nathan Lewis, and Elizabeth Ames, Inflation: What It Is, Why It’s Bad, and How to Fix It (Encounter Books, 2022) ISBN: 9781641772433, 196 pages

In The Inflation Myth and the Wonderful World of Deflation, Mark Mobius embarks on a journey that might just prove everything we conventionally know about inflation wrong, presenting a thought-provoking narrative that questions the very foundations of our economic understanding.

In a world marked by rapid technological advancements, Mobius contends that our traditional metrics for measuring inflation are no longer adequate, urging readers to reconsider long-held beliefs about the economic phenomenon.

Mobius explorates of the shifting landscape of technological innovation driving the creation of cheaper and superior products. The heart of his argument lies in the assertion that these transformative changes are not accurately reflected in the ways we currently measure inflation. The book boldly contends that our contemporary understanding of inflation is nothing short of a myth.

One of the book’s standout features is its illumination of the political dimensions of inflation measurement. Mobius exposes the unsettling reality of governments manipulating and exploiting inflation figures to align with their economic agendas. He delves into the extreme challenges involved in gathering accurate data for inflation measurement, highlighting the inherent inaccuracies that result from these endeavors.

A crucial point of contention raised by Mobius is the fallacy of relying on currencies as a measure of inflation when these very currencies are continually being debased by the governments that issue them. This revelation challenges readers to reconsider the reliability of traditional economic indicators and prompts a deeper examination of the intricate relationship between currency devaluation and inflation.

Most significantly, Mobius underscores the impact of technological advancements and automation on the continuously falling costs of goods and services. The book articulates how these advances contribute to a deflationary trend, contrary to the prevailing narrative of perpetual inflation. Through compelling arguments and well-supported evidence, Mobius encourages readers to recognize the transformative power of technology in reshaping our economic landscape.

Mark Mobius, The Inflation Myth and the Wonderful World of Deflation (Wiley, 2020) ISBN: 978-1-119-74142-8, 256 Pages

Another important myth-busting source is We Need to Talk About Inflation: 14 Urgent Lessons from the Last 2,000 Years. In the book, economist Stephen D. King delivers a compelling exploration of the resurgence of inflation, exposing the desperate gullibility of central bankers, finance ministers, and the collective failure to learn from historical lessons. The book dismantles the widespread assumption that inflation was a relic of the past, revealing a new economic reality that threatens to exacerbate wealth inequality on a global scale.

In a world where investors, monetary authorities, governments, and policy makers had collectively believed inflation to be a thing of the past, King highlights the startling emergence of a poisonous economic reality. This new reality brings with it the ominous specter of increasing wealth inequality, forcing individuals worldwide to confront the profound implications of this unforeseen turn of events.

King, having been among the few to sound the alarm ahead of the latest inflationary upheaval, delves into the roots of the current situation. We Need to Talk About Inflation becomes a beacon, shedding light on the key lessons from history that policy makers either ignored or chose not to heed. From the days of ancient Rome through the American Civil War and up to the asset bubbles of today, King traces the common threads of inflation, attributing its resurgence to policy errors, sovereign greed, and a collective loss of faith in currencies.

The book stands as a sobering reminder that the economic challenges we face today are not unprecedented; they are deeply rooted in a historical continuum of bad judgment and misunderstanding. We Need to Talk About Inflation serves as a crucial intervention, cutting through centuries of oversight and misinformation to offer actionable insights that can be implemented now.

Stephen D. King, We Need to Talk About Inflation: 14 Urgent Lessons from the Last 2,000 Years (Yale University Press, 2023) ISBN: 9780300270471, 240 pages

Paul Mattick’s The Return of Inflation: Money and Capital in the 21st Century emerges as both a historical retrospective and a contemporary analysis, offering a profound examination of what is undeniably the defining economic concern of our time.

Mattick’s work delves into the surprise surge in price increases. Amidst the varying perspectives on the current economic landscape, there is unanimous agreement on one aspect: the imperative to curb inflation, even if the methods to achieve this goal are a subject of contention.

The Return of Inflation distinguishes itself by placing contemporary events within the broader context of capitalism’s history. Mattick skillfully entwines the past and the present, providing readers with a comprehensive understanding of the economic forces at play. An exploration into the nature of money serves as a foundational element of the book, offering readers a concise and jargon-free grasp of recent inflation trends and the strategies implemented to manage them.

What sets this book apart is its ability to demystify the complexities surrounding inflation. Mattick takes the reader on a journey through the historical antecedents of inflation, shedding light on the evolving dynamics of the economy. Through this lens, the book illuminates the state of our contemporary economic landscape, offering insights that bridge the gap between past and present.

Mattick’s insightful exploration provides a nuanced perspective on the current economic challenges and offers a valuable resource for those seeking clarity on the defining economic concern of our time.

Paul Mattick, The Return of Inflation: Money and Capital in the 21st Century (Reaktion Books, 2023) ISBN: 9781789147919, 184 pages

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n an era marked by unprecedented global challenges, few issues resonate as profoundly as the quest for food security. The Russian invasion of Ukraine and the grain shortage that followed showcased the grave vulnerability of existing systems. The imperative of ensuring that everyone, everywhere has access to safe, sufficient, and nutritious food looms large on the global stage. This month’s book bundle presents a curated selection of books that delve into food security, examining it from multiple angles, and offering insights, strategies, and solutions.

From the intricacies of international trade policies to the sustainability of food systems, and from the impacts of geopolitical conflicts to the strategic place of food, these books provide a comprehensive understanding of the challenges and opportunities in the realm of global food security.

Whether you are a policymaker, researcher, student, or simply a concerned global citizen, this collection provides valuable resources for understanding, navigating, and contributing to the discourse on global food security.

Food Security: Availability, Income and Productivity is a pertinent book that explores the pressing issue of global food security as our world population continues to grow. The author focuses on three key conditions necessary to achieve food security: food availability, adequate incomes, and increased agricultural productivity.

The book draws insights from history and contemporary contexts to thoroughly examine these conditions. It takes a close look at the obstacles preventing consistent food availability and discusses how to overcome these challenges. It also delves into the importance of ensuring sufficient incomes, highlighting programs like food stamps and food banks. Furthermore, the book provides valuable insights into the factors driving enhanced agricultural productivity.

Food Security caters to a broad audience, including agricultural experts, policymakers, and NGOs working in food aid. It’s also a valuable resource for students studying agriculture and public policy. The book not only informs but also encourages critical thinking about the complex task of feeding a projected nine billion people by 2050.

In a world where food scarcity is becoming increasingly worrisome, this book offers essential insights into the intricate web of food security. It provides a well-reasoned analysis that will contribute to ongoing discussions and efforts aimed at ensuring a sustainable food future for everyone.

William A. Kerr, Food Security: Availability, Income and Productivity (Edward Elgar Publishing, 2023) ISBN: 978 1 03531 270 2, 234 pages

Shadow Negotiators: How UN Organizations Shape the Rules of World Trade for Food Security by Matias E. Margulis is a groundbreaking exploration of the influence exerted by United Nations (UN) organizations within the World Trade Organization (WTO) despite their absence from the formal negotiation table. Margulis introduces the concept of “shadow negotiators,” illustrating how UN bodies strategically engage in political actions to shape multilateral trade negotiations.

The book’s primary focus is on the contentious issue of agricultural trade liberalization. It provides a detailed analysis of interventions by four UN organizations: the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), the World Food Programme (WFP), the Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR), and the Special Rapporteur on the Right to Food (SRRTF).

Margulis unveils the innovative strategies these UN entities employ to influence global trade regulations. Importantly, he emphasizes that their motivation isn’t rooted in competition with the WTO or ideological opposition to trade liberalization. Instead, it stems from their concern that certain trade rules could negatively impact global food security, running counter to their core mission of addressing world hunger and safeguarding the right to food.

Shadow Negotiators is a meticulously researched work that offers fresh insights into the often-unseen dynamics of international trade. It’s essential reading for those interested in the intersection of trade policy and global welfare, making a valuable contribution to the field of international relations and trade studies.

Matias E. Margulis, Shadow Negotiators: How UN Organizations Shape the Rules of World Trade for Food Security (Stanford University Press, 2023) ISBN: 9781503633520, 292 pages

Universal Food Security: How to End Hunger While Protecting the Planet by Glenn Denning explores the path towards a world where hunger and malnutrition are eradicated, and everyone can access healthy and abundant food for a productive life. The book emphasizes the need to transform our food systems, focusing on sustainability and environmental restoration, from production to distribution.

Denning, drawing from his extensive experience in over fifty countries, offers a practical guide to making healthy diets accessible to all while ensuring sustainability. He identifies key priorities, including sustainable agriculture intensification, robust market infrastructure, responsible postharvest practices, promoting healthy eating, and establishing social safety nets. The book underscores the pivotal role of practitioner-leaders in driving this transformation, highlighting the importance of education and development in instigating change.

But beyond the roadmap, Denning reminds us that the engine driving this transformation is practitioner-leadership, underscored by education and development. This book stands as a testament to the potential for meaningful change when individuals and institutions commit to reshaping our world, making universal food security not merely a dream but a tangible and sustainable reality.

Glenn Denning, Universal Food Security: How to End Hunger While Protecting the Planet (Columbia University Press, 2023) ISBN: 9780231197618, 448 pages

The Russia-Ukraine Conflict and Global Food Security explores the global food security implications of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, which occurred during a period of already high food prices due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The book highlights the importance of the Black Sea region for global food production and Russia’s role in supplying natural gas and fertilizers.

The potential disruption of trade in this region posed a significant threat, with the potential to raise food prices and worsen poverty and hunger in vulnerable countries. The conflict primarily impacted trade in cereals and vegetable oils, fertilizer exports, and energy costs, potentially pushing millions into hunger and poverty.

The International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) responded swiftly by providing information and policy advice. They established a blog series and online resources to disseminate critical information rapidly. This book compiles these blog posts, offering an overview of the crisis’s progression, international responses, and lessons for ensuring food security in the wake of disruptions.

This book provides essential insights into a rapidly evolving crisis with far-reaching implications for global food security, making it valuable for policymakers and researchers.

Joseph W. Glauber, Ed. and David Laborde Debucquet. Ed., The Russia-Ukraine Conflict and Global Food Security (IFPRI, 2023) ISBN: 9780896294394, 196 pages

Bread and Autocracy: Food, Politics, and Security in Putin’s Russia offers a compelling analysis of the pivotal role food has played in Russian politics from the 1917 Revolution to the present under Putin’s leadership. The authors, Janetta Azarieva, Yitzhak M. Brudny, and Eugene Finkel, argue that Russia’s transition from a grain importer to a global food exporter was a deliberate, long-term strategy aimed at enhancing national security and regime stability. This focus on food self-sufficiency sets Russia apart from other autocracies, as it prioritizes domestic food production over imports, highlighting its significance in maintaining autocratic rule.

The book’s relevance is heightened in today’s world, where food issues are once again at the forefront of global concerns and nations are emphasizing self-reliance. Bread and Autocracy provides a timely and comprehensive exploration of Russia’s unique approach to food politics, shedding light on its implications for both domestic and international affairs. It is a valuable read for those seeking a deeper understanding of Russia’s distinctive stance on food and its impact on political power. The book will be available in hardcover on September 1, 2023.

Janetta Azarieva, Yitzhak M. Brudny, and Eugene Finkel, Bread and Autocracy: Food, Politics, and Security in Putin’s Russia (Oxford University Press, 2023) ISBN: 9780197684368, 525 pages

On the lush hills of the Myanmar-China border stands an autonomous self-governing polity in Myanmar, the Wa State. It is de facto independent from the rest of the country and has its own political system, administrative divisions and army. Stalemate delves into the captivating history and contemporary political landscape of the United Wa State Army (UWSA), an insurgent force with 20,000-30,000 active forces that stands as Asia’s most formidable.

This narrative of ethnographic exploration paints a vivid picture of an upland community, often brushed aside as mere rebels or linked to drug trade, yet proficiently upholding a unique autonomy that navigates between two dominant states. Rather than sidestepping the neighboring states, the Wa polity actively engages with them, a dynamic that unfolds against the backdrop of sovereignty and statehood struggles.

Through the lens of Andrew Ong’s meticulous analysis, in Stalemate: Autonomy and Insurgency on the China-Myanmar Border readers are led through the political culture entrenched within Wa elites and the general populace, the complex web of UWSA’s international connections, and the intricate capital flows in conjunction with China, illuminating the orchestration behind Wa autonomy. Geopolitical strategy and involvement in the shadow economy is what breathes life into the concept of Wa autonomy. In fact, the book adeptly navigates through the multifaceted borderland geopolitics and the nuances of the shadow economy, highlighting how the United Wa State Army carefully treads this intricate path.

Blending anthropological insights with his personal encounters as a World Food Programme employee in Wa State, Ong delivers a contemplative on-the-ground portrayal of political dynamics in Wa. His objectives, intertwined and interwoven, unfold in three tiers. Primarily, he endeavors to enable readers to perceive the world through the eyes of Wa State’s inhabitants, gaining their perspective. Subsequently, he aims to foster comprehension of the disparities between Wa governance principles and international norms. Lastly, he prompts a reconsideration of conventional interpretations of disorder and stability.

The saying “Money makes the world go round” takes a more powerful meaning in a globalized capitalist economy. But what happens when the ones at the very top of the money chain are corrupted? In this month’s book bundle, we share with you three books that explore the influence of the rich and powerful, discuss how the world really goes round, and expose the staggering cases of how corruption hides itself often in plain sight with its effects rippling into the depth of systems, societies, and the lives of each one of us.

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he COVID19 pandemic revealed to many an eye-opening trend of wealth centralization: the rich are getting richer, and governments around the world are hardly able to protect those who are most vulnerable from the detrimental economic and social effects of a crisis. Who is the culprit?

The New York Times‘s award-winning global economics journalist Peter S. Goodman presents a page-turning exposé of the global billionaire class, the “Davos Man,” and its hostile takeover of the world. Davos Man documents billionaires’ exploitation of the COVID19 pandemic, which turned “taxpayer-financed bailout packages into corporate welfare schemes.” This global billionaire class instrumentalized its power to conceal the truth by hiring lobbyists, PR managers, and journalists in media.

Furthermore, Goodman uncovers the concealed impacts of their oligarchic control reaching into every branch of society and modern life, from wages to housing, healthcare to everyday products and taxation. He argues that their systematic plunder ultimately destabilized democracy by widening wealth inequality, leaving governing systems vulnerable, and triggering the rise of anti-democratic nationalism. He provides the answer to the problem of wider context: how did the liberal democratic order become a breeding ground for the right-wing hate?

Goodman not only provides a vividly written description of the realm of the ultra-rich but more importantly the realities of those who are dissipated by their appropriation all around the world including accounts from a blue-collar worker in Buenos Aires, a Bangladeshi migrant in Qatar, a doctor in Seattle during the COVID19 pandemic, an African immigrant in Sweden, a textile manufacturer in Italy, and an Amazon warehouse employee in New York City. Davos Man is a must-read for those concerned about inequality, economic justice, the resilience of societies, democracy, and the great challenges of our time.

Peter S. Goodman, Davos Man: How the Billionaires Devoured the World (Custom House 2022) ISBN: 9780063078314, 472 pages

The anonymous leak of the Panama Papers in 2016 revealed millions of financial and legal documents that show how ultra-high-net-worth individuals hide their money using complex webs of offshore vehicles. How were these structures set and who plays a role?

Spiderweb Capitalism uncovers the shadow economy and the mechanics behind the illicit movement of wealth across borders through the invisible, complex networks of lawyers, accountants, company secretaries, and fixers.

Sociologist Kimberly Kay Hoang traveled the globe to follow the money through a web-like supersystem and conducted hundreds of in-depth interviews with these ultra-high-net-worth individuals, private wealth managers, fund managers, entrepreneurs, C-suite executives, bankers, auditors, and other financial professionals to find an answer.

Hoang reveals the strategies behind spiderweb capitalism and examines the moral dilemmas of making money in legal, financial, and political gray zones as she traces the flow of capital from offshore funds in places like the Cayman Islands, Samoa, and Panama to special-purpose vehicles and holding companies in Singapore and Hong Kong and risky markets in Vietnam and Myanmar. How are these smaller markets interconnected in a broader system of global capitalism?

Spiderweb Capitalism sheds critical light on how global elites capitalize on risky frontier markets.  Hoang argues that spiderweb capitalism explains the rapid rise of foreign capital in risky markets with low levels of trust and cooperation. Economic growth in such markets is a consequence of tightly embedded relations between the economic elite and political elites that result in a variety of corruptions.

Contrary to the “economic mantra that development can only occur in economies with a strong rule of law,” Spiderweb Capitalism shows a paradox of global economic growth sustained through states where the line separating the legal from the corrupt is not always clear. Hoang’s research further reveals that old paradigms like First World/Third World and Global North/Global South are no longer useful for framing the global economy.

Spiderweb Capitalism is a unique and worthwhile read, not only uncovering the dynamics of a global system of corruption but also the sociological backgrounds of playing in the grey.

Kimberly Kay Hoang, Spiderweb Capitalism: How Global Elites Exploit Frontier Markets (Princeton University Press 2022) ISBN: 9780691229119, 288 pages

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n Philanthrocapitalism and the Erosion of Democracy, activist Dr. Vandana Shiva compiles essays and articles from more than 20 authors and organizations to show how ruthless capitalistic exploitation branded as philanthropic altruism forges a direct path to global destruction. According to David Orr, philanthrocapitalists are those who “promise to solve hunger, disease, poverty, and a rapidly destabilizing climate often by selling us more of the same things that made them very rich,” which oftentimes ignores the root causes and inequities.

How do global capitalists wield philanthropy to monopolize and privatize land use, food production, and the public health sector effectively? Through various initiatives, suborganizations, development schemes, and funding mechanisms. The book points out that the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation’s empire, in particular, is an intricate network of power and influence solidified by targeted and well-financed PR campaigns to shape public opinion in pursuit of profit and market expansion.

Philanthrocapitalism and the Erosion of Democracy criticizes the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and similar organizations’ many privileged relationships with private companies, governments, and the World Health Organization that allow them exclusively to set the global agenda on health. The book argues that simplified solutions based on technical and scientific developments introduced by these organizations are often narrow in scope and remain insufficient in solving complex problems. Furthermore, they corrode the integrity of democratic institutions guised under a banner of future-oriented innovation.

Philanthrocapitalism and the Erosion of Democracy reveals the destructive power of overly capitalistic systems that enable mass human suffering and environmental catastrophe via the entanglement of private investment and public policy, and aims to bring forward democratic discussions about transparency, accountability, and inclusivity.

Vandana Shiva, Philanthrocapitalism and the Erosion of Democracy: A Global Citizen’s Report on the Corporate Control of Technology, Health, and Agriculture (Synergetic Press 2022) ISBN: 9780907791911, 240 pages

As our lives migrate further online and the public sphere becomes increasingly digitized, cybersecurity and issues with internet governance come more often to the fore.

Acting as a double-edged sword, the internet proved its power repeatedly with social movements such as the Arab Spring or on the eve of elections in any given country.

Governments, which have provided or facilitated access to the internet with no or minimal interference, are beginning to consider the implications of open internet due to its impact on public, national, and economic matters.

Trolls, cybersecurity threats, censorship, and echo chambers all threaten our personal use and state of democracy. Yet, there is another layer where the internet reveals itself as an effective tool: power politics.

In 2021, the Information Technology and Innovation Foundation (ITIF) published a report advising the United States to adopt a new strategy grounded in digital realpolitik with a more pragmatic focus on protecting and advancing key U.S. interests – and the government seems to be listening.

With the shifting global balance and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the United States’ digital doctrine appears to be evolving from being a pioneer in pushing internet openness to tracking constraining digital adversaries, such as Russia and China, and projecting U.S. leadership.

COVID and e-commerce volume

Associate Professor Ali Burak Darıcılı of Bursa Technical University told Politics Today that by adding internet economy to the mix, the COVID-19 pandemic significantly increased e-commerce volume, and that now there is a lot to lose from the fragmentation of the internet.

Countries like Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea challenge the status quo for a variety of reasons and with a variety of tools. The most radical scenario would be setting up national cyberspaces, and thus fragmenting the internet.

However, to avoid losing e-commerce value and curb any other detrimental consequence, the challenging nations call for the multilateral governance of the internet while fighting for a piece of the digital hegemony pie.

Rather than cooperating with Russia and China following their calls for a deal, the U.S. chooses to keep the status quo and to move forward with its own initiative with like-minded partners.

The transatlantic united against Russian cyberattacks

In case of further heated conflicts, Russia’s “hybrid warfare” approach, which utilized confusion and destabilization alongside cyberattacks, needs to be tackled. The invasion of Ukraine has allowed the U.S. to experiment and assert its digital advantages without abandoning its principle of internet openness.

The U.S. was able to harness and revitalize its transatlantic relations with its allies to protect itself against Russian cyberattacks and to engage in information war, launching offensives of its own and countering online repression with the Freedom Online Coalition and the Open Technology Fund.

A U.S.-EU Trade and Technology Council meeting in May this year emphasized the role governments have in protecting the digital information space in a crisis, implying a collaborative counteroffensive against Russia’s propaganda efforts and setting a framework for future conflicts.

Meanwhile, U.S. sanctions and intelligence deployment cut off Russia’s military from sensitive U.S. technology exports, and Russia itself from the internet economy, without cutting off its citizens’ access.

On March 24, 2022, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) released a working paper entitled “The Stealth Erosion of Dollar Dominance: Active Diversifiers and the Rise of Non-traditional Reserve Currencies.”

In its findings, notable attention was given to the fact that the dollar’s share of global reserve currencies has been in a steady decline over the last 20 years as the role of non-traditional currencies such as the yuan is rising. Other than China’s national currency, currencies that are gaining ground include the Singaporean dollar, the Korean won, the Australian dollar, and the Canadian dollar.

With the advent of the Russia-Ukraine war, the U.S.-led western allies have imposed sweeping economic sanctions on Moscow and knocked it off the SWIFT (Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunications) system. Gita Gopinath, the IMF’s first deputy managing director, stated that “the financial sanctions imposed on Russia threaten to gradually dilute the dominance of the U.S. dollar and could result in a more fragmented international monetary system.”

Hence, “the war would also spur the adoption of digital finance, from cryptocurrencies to stable coins and central bank digital currencies,” she added.

One can’t afford to ignore the IMF findings on the decline of the U.S. dollar as few countries can already be seen looking for alternatives of the currency lingua franca—the U.S. dollar— to trade with other countries.

Looking for “dollar” alternatives, countries picking up the gauntlet!

China is purchasing Russian oil and coal using its local currency, the yuan. Since the advent of the Russia-Ukraine war, many countries cut off their Russian imports to put pressure on Russia’s economy. On the contrary, Chinese firms decided to use the yuan to buy Russian coal, which will be arriving this month at independent Chinese refiners. As Bloomberg reported, this Chinese move will mark the first commodity shipment paid in Chinese currency since the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

In a similar vein, Saudi Arabia is in talks with China regarding using the yuan instead of the greenback to price some of its oil sales. The trend between Beijing and Riyadh over the usage of yuan to buy and sell oil has been fluctuating for the last six years. But experts predict that this year may witness serious steps to use national currencies in trade between Saudi Arabia and China.

Moving towards South Asia, reports speak of initial consultations between New Delhi and Moscow to reinstate a rupee-ruble trade mechanism. India’s commerce minister Piyush Goyal added that the rupee-ruble trade mechanism is just being discussed and that no decision has been made yet.

In addition, Iran put emphasis on the usage of rupee-rial trade for the export of gas and oil. According to the Iranian Ambassador to New Delhi Ali Chegeni, “If both countries launch a rupee-rial trade mechanism, the bilateral trade could grow to $30 billion.”

He further stated that “a rupee-rial trade mechanism can help companies from both countries deal with each other directly and avoid third-party intermediation costs.” However, there was no response from the Indian counterpart on this statement.

Dollar in the digital currency race

As nations are looking for an alternative to the U.S. dollar to buy oil and other commodities, the concept of central bank digital currency (CBDC) is gaining traction. A CBDC is the digital form of a country’s fiat currency by the central bank. Instead of printing money, the central bank issues electronic coins backed by the full faith and credit of the government.

At present, nine countries in the Eastern Caribbean, the Bahamas, and Nigeria have launched their sovereign digital currency. Fourteen countries are in the pilot stage and are preparing for a possible full launch. Some of them are major economies that are a part of the G20 such as China, South Korea, Saudi Arabia, Russia, and South Africa. Other major countries include Canada, India, Brazil, Turkey, Japan, and the European continent.

As countries worldwide are adopting the concept of CBDC, the United States started considering the potential of digital currency. On March 9, the Biden administration released an executive order in which Biden has instructed the federal government to work on CBDC, a digital dollar. Following that, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen highlighted the federal digital currency of the U.S. in a speech.

However, dissenters are emerging in the U.S. over the possible benefits of digital currency. Recently, Christopher Waller, a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, said he is not convinced of the need for CBDC.

As the U.S. is still working on the idea of sovereign digital currency, China has already introduced the digital yuan to its 15th city. In 2021, transactions of more than $8 billion were made using the digital yuan. Hence, the pressure is rising on the U.S. to take quick action regarding the creation of a sovereign digital currency of its own.

Considering the pattern among nations to look for alternative currency for trade, one could expect a significant reorganization of existing global payment networks. However, the reorganization seems to be bolstered by a sharp escalation in the use of digital sovereign currency.

Academia and the currency war debate

Will the dominance of the U.S. dollar erode as more countries look to trade in alternative currencies? Could the adoption of CBDC among nations have any significant impact on the dominance of the U.S. dollar? Will the U.S. dollar give way to a multipolar system of currencies? These are the question that are widely being debated among academics.

According to Gal Luft, the co-director of the Institute for the Analysis of Global Security, the U.S. stinging economic measures may lead central banks to diversify their portfolios of foreign reserves instead of relying heavily on the dollar. He stated that central banks are starting to question whether reliance on the U.S. dollar is a good idea.

In regard to digital currency, Michael Sung and Christopher A. Thomas argue in their latest article that “the primacy of the U.S. dollar grants the U.S. government and economy special privileges… as the adoption of crypto and CBDC increases, the benefits afforded to the U.S. by the dollar’s dominance will gradually decrease.”

However, experts like Professor Paul Krugman  clearly denied that U.S. dollar’s world dominance is at risk. According to Krugman, the U.S. dollar dominance still looks pretty secure because its major competitor, China, is an “autocracy with a propensity for erratic policies” and therefore people will not prefer yuan assets.

We have not known coffee for very long. Most accounts take us only as back as the 15th century, when it was first used by the mystics of Yemen. Yet, coffee somehow got the lion’s share of blame in many conspiracies around the world. Attempts were made with varying level of success by those who valued order over thrill to get it banned in the Ottoman Empire, Persia, Sweden, and Italy.

Now, the sublime beans seem to have had more than their due share of trouble, and are calling it a day.

Scientists have warned that 60% of the species of coffee are at risk of extinction. Out of 124 known types of coffee species, we actually use just two for our beverage: Coffea Arabica and Coffea robusta. But Arabica, the most popular one, is in trouble too.

Most of the species facing the risk of extinction are not used for making coffee. But even those must be conserved, scientists say, for cross-breeding and production of more resilient new varieties, which are sensitive to climatic threats.

According to experts, while global coffee demand is expected to double by 2050, at least half of the land used for coffee production may become unsuitable by then.

While coffee will not disappear anytime soon, the quantum of the problem is significant. Ethiopia, the original source of the enigmatic beans, is still the largest African exporter of coffee. But 60% of the land that is used for coffee production there will become unsuitable by the end of this century.

A very nice-tasting species of coffee, the Coffea stenophylla, was seen in December 2018 for the first time since 1954. This was only a single plant, in an area that itself, scientists reported, was threatened by human encroachment and deforestation.

Rising global demand

According to experts, while global coffee demand is expected to double by 2050, at least half of the land used for coffee production may become unsuitable by then.

Even though a higher demand may support price in the short to medium run, we will actually be pushing the planetary boundaries in the longer run beyond what the Earth can sustain.

In the absence of appropriate support mechanisms, a higher demand will lead to a greater environmental stress, that is worsened by a warmer planet. Challenges to coffee production may increase in scope, as well as intensity, over time. The need to strengthen and augment the coffee ecosystem is urgent.

Anatomy of environmental stress

Human-induced climate change, diseases and pests, and deforestation are some of the reasons why certain species of coffee are already under threat.

Take Costa Rica, for example, where farmers are leaving coffee plantation in favor of orange production due to erratic weather, and more storms and droughts. This has meant an increase in the cost of the production of coffee. On the other hand, farmers find oranges to be more resilient in the face of climatic threats. This must be a difficult decision in a country where people feel a deep connection between Coffea and who they are.

But the damage from climate change does not stop here. As a result of the hotter climate and increasing rainfall levels, fungi such as the coffee leaf rust (Hemileia vastatrix) and pests like the coffee berry borer (Hypothenemus hampei) are appearing in areas that were previously free of them.

Meanwhile, growers in other areas, like Australia, which represents a potential substitute area to the more conventional centers of coffee production, lament less-than-usual rainfall, due to changing weather patterns.

Even if rainfall were optimal, Australian coffee is less environmentally stressed otherwise, and therefore, has 10-15% lesser caffeine. Caffeine production being a defense mechanism, a less stressful environment means less caffeine.

It, therefore, seems like there is also an optimal level of stress at which nature thrives. However, instead of respecting such subtleties and the intricate forces of balance in our world, we revel in the excesses that we cheer as the era of mass consumption.

Danger to livelihoods

As we see these problems from a distance, we may be tempted to conclude that there is still enough time to act and that appropriate measures will probably prevent something as extreme as coffee disappearing from the planet.

Yet, for those whose livelihoods depend on coffee, the question is rather irrelevant. For them, the coffee either stays feasible, or has to be replaced by some other crop as soon as possible. The falling prices of coffee worldwide have made things even more difficult, especially for smaller farmers.

Already 40% of coffee farmers are estimated to be living below the poverty line. Small farmers owning less than 5 hectares (12 acres) of land account for two-thirds of global coffee supply. They are not only poor to begin with but cannot compete with big producers in mechanization, automation, or cost-effectiveness.

Compare the small producers, with the big producers of Brazil, for example, which accounts for a third of global coffee production. Owing to greater sophistication, big Brazilian producers can produce more at a lower cost.

This is bad news for smaller farmers. When the overall production in the world is high – sometimes driven solely by Brazil – the price falls. This, again, effects small farmers disproportionately, who are producing at very low profit margins already. When the prices are too low, it is not unusual for them to have to sell below cost.

At the end of the day, poorer farmers may end up producing lower quality beans, at a higher relative cost, and not being able to incorporate more sustainable agricultural practices, like soil enrichment.

The result is that these farmers are trying to switch to other crops where they can. But switching to other crops is not a costless process, and may not always be a success. The disturbances from climate change and an erratic pricing system, have resulted in psychological health problems in poor farmers ranging from anxiety and depression to suicide.

Healing the world

The indifference of the world to the raging inequalities is heartbreaking. As we grab a $5 cup of coffee, on the go, we should think about the farmer who must have worked for 48 hours to make the same amount of money.

At the very least the world needs a mechanism to ensure a fair price to the coffee farmers, as their already challenged livelihoods are disrupted by the environmental footprint of the richer world. The richest 10% in the world account for more than 50% of global carbon emissions, after all.

So, where are we right now?

The Fair Trade movement is said to be helping farmers with a “fair” price. But even they admit that a price higher than what they are able to offer would be more desirable. Starbucks claims to procure 99% of its coffee “ethically,” where they have data going down to the name of the farmer who they bought the beans from along with the price (which they do not disclose publicly).