As the dust of the war in Kirkuk and the disputed territories in northern Iraq settle down, there are two issues on the forefront: the future of relations between Erbil and Baghdad, and the future status of Masoud Barzani. It is fair to maintain that the Kirkuk Operation signaled the end of Kurdish independence for decades to come and spelled the demise of Barzani.

The Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) is likely to remain a weak and divided region, increasingly subservient to Baghdad. With the loss of over 50% of the disputed territories and the majority of its oil fields, combined with the commitment for Iraq’s territorial integrity, as was displayed by the international community during the Kirkuk Operation, Kurdish leaders lost any hope they had for independence in the foreseeable future.

The future of Barzani in KRG politics

Masoud Barzani was elected as president of the KRG in the 2009 general election. His term was extended in 2013 through a political arrangement made between the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) and the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP). On August 19, 2015, his presidency expired and this led to a crisis of legitimacy and mass protests, which were led by the Gorran movement. During the campaign for the referendum, Barzani repeatedly asserted that he will not run for presidency, and that accepting to be president of the KRG was the biggest mistake of his life – apparently Barzani thinks he is too important to occupy a position which was like being a governor of three provinces.

Though late, Barzani seems to have realized that being leader of the KRG automatically puts him in a hierarchically minor position vis-à-vis the Baghdad government. Following the losses inflicted on the KRG during the Kirkuk Operation, fingers were internally and externally pointed at Barzani as he was held responsible for the Peshmarga’s major defeat.

Moreover, officials in Baghdad and abroad, the US in particular, sent the KRG unfailing messages of possible repercussions of the referendum, which were single-handedly carried out in spite of objections raised by the international community. Thus, he gambled and lost more than what he estimated.

Having heard the message clear and loud, on October 29 Barzani sent a letter to the KRG parliament in which he requested for his powers to be delegated between the government and parliament. It is noteworthy that on October 24 Kurdish lawmakers voted overwhelmingly to extend the current term of the parliament for eight more months to be followed by an election. In his resignation speech, Barzani vigorously defended his decision to hold the September 25 referendum. He stated: “The results can never be erased… the Iraqi attack on Kirkuk and other Kurdish held territory vindicated my position that Baghdad no longer believed in federalism and instead wanted to curtail Kurdish rights.”

Following his resignation, Barzani has repeatedly stated that he will stay fighting as “an ordinary Peshmarga.” On November 1, 2017, he toured Peshmarga forces on the new frontiers, separating them from Iraqi troops and Shiite militias near Fishhabur in Dohuk and Makhmour in Mosul.

Political analysts anticipate that Barzani will remain leading KRG politics from behind the scenes for several reasons. In his letter to the KRG parliament, while Barzani did not admit defeat or apologize, he requested for his nephew and son-in-law Nechirvan Barzani, the ongoing prime minister of the KRG, to lead the country out of the current crisis. Nechirvan Barzani does not have the personal caliber to stand to Barzani. While the Barzani dynasty is formed on the basis of a religious hierarchical order where the orders of the elders are strictly obeyed, his close aides are not at pain to conceal this reality. “Barzani will stay in Kurdish politics and lead the high political council, but on Nov. 1st he will no longer be president of the region,” Hemin Hawrami, a senior advisor of Barzani stated. Umed Khoshnaw, head of the KDP group in the KRG parliament stated that the resignation of Barzani will give him “more time to play a bigger role in supporting Peshmarga efforts to defend Kurdish rights,” and that “he will stay to be the only person capable of guaranteeing Kurdish rights and the unifying element of Kurdish society.”

The Abadi factor in future relations between Baghdad and Erbil

Following the success of the Iraqi forces, the Baghdad administration re-negated from earlier agreements they made with PUK officials for a joint administration in Kirkuk and in other disputed territories. Qasem Soleimani, the commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Quds Corp, who planned and executed the Kirkuk Operation (October 16-20, 2017), had made a secret deal with leading members of the PUK in order to divide and eventually overrun the KRG. Should the plan realize, it will lead to the formation of a new region in Sulaymaniyah and Halabja.

Other than departing from the arrangements made, Abadi issued decrees in order to try officials who participated in the independence referendum. Thus, sixteen Kurdish law makers are currently facing trial in Iraqi courts. The central government is now planning to send 221 employees to the KRG in order to monitor airplanes and crossing gates in the region. Moreover, the Baghdad government is trying to force the KRG to hand over its remaining oilfields, tax incomes and other internal incomes in exchange for sending some KRG employees their salaries. Besides, Abadi has requested for all border points and airports, which have initially remained under KRG control, to be surrendered to the Federal authorities. Finally, the prime minister has also insisted for the KRG military and security forces to be downsized and for the surrender of their heavy weapons to Baghdad. However, Kurdish authorities have not, and most probably will not, accept downsizing the number of Peshmarga forces or surrender weapons, as they do not trust the Baghdad administration. It is also significant to note here that the number of Kurds and Sunni Arabs in the Iraqi federal army and security forces have been decreased to less than 7 percent.

On October 20, 2017, the US called for direct negotiations between Baghdad and Erbil in order to deescalate the fighting. Prior to this, the KRG had already welcomed Abadi’s initiative for dialogue between the two parties, and had requested for the international community to help start such talks. However, just after the call from the US, an Iraqi court issued a decree to arrest Kosrat Rasul Ali, PUK’s acting General Secretary and the Deputy President of the KRG, on the ground that statements he made were provocative and against the safety of the Iraqi army. Kosrat had stated that the entrance of Shiite militias into disputed territories during the Kirkuk operation was an occupation and was the result of internal treason within the PUK.

In addition to the decree issued to arrest Ali, Abadi emphasized that negotiations will only take place between Baghdad and Erbil if the latter declare the referendum results null and void. More, the Iraqi prime minister asked for the surrender of all the international crossing gates, which the KRG still controls. It is worth noting here that the KRG leadership could not afford to conform to such a request. However, on 25 October, Masoud Barzani issued an order freezing the results of the referendum and expressed readiness to negotiate with Baghdad on the basis of the constitution. Therefore, on 20 November Iraq’s Federal Supreme Court declared that the Kurdish independence referendum “was unconstitutional and the results void.” This further strengthened Baghdad’s hand in a stand-off with the KRG.

Abadi welcomed the court ruling and called on Kurdish authorities to respect the constitution. His government described the court decision as “further vindication” of its “constitutional position.” While the KRG under Nechirvan Barzani has not declared whether they will accept or reject the ruling, N. Barzani himself has condemned the process, claiming that the court made its decision “unilaterally and without the presence of Kurdish representatives.” In addition, Masoud Barzani described the Federal court’s decision as biased and politically motivated.

In spite of all developments, the US and EU member states maintain their pressure on Abadi in order to begin negotiations with the N. Barzani administration and for the end to any further military operations. On November 24, 2017, the Iraqi government prevented a planned visit of the German Foreign Minister to Erbil. This caused Germany to cancel the visit to Iraq.

It can be argued that there are two distinct reasons for why Abadi is maintaining a firm stand on the KRG: firstly, Abadi is concerned that he may be perceived as too soft on the issue of Kurdish separatism and secondly, in preparation for the national elections in May 2018, the prime minister plans to run on a separate platform from that of an al-Maliki’s State of Law bloc, which he currently belongs to. Nevertheless, he is also well aware of the existing fragile and vulnerable political condition of the KRG, which has been brought about by the Kirkuk Operation.

Although Masoud Barzani remains as president of the KDP and is playing a consultative, though not insignificant role to Nechirvan Barzani, his career as a “national” leader seems to have come to an end. Thus, as Abadi continues to build his authority in the country, relations between the Baghdad and KRG administrations have entered a new era in which the semi-independent status of the KRG has become something of the past. The much spoken about Kurdish ascendance in the Middle East has inevitably proved to be a mirage.

Following the military operation of the Iraqi Armed Forces in Kirkuk, the KRG leader Masoud Barzani described the withdrawal of the Peshmerga and the handover of Kirkuk to Baghdad as “treason.”

According to Rudaw English, in a televised address, Barzani said: “The Peshmerga and all the people of Kurdistan were stabbed in the back by a poisonous dagger.”

On October 16, Iraqi forces took over Kirkuk from Kurdish elements, which also gave the Baghdad administration control of oil wells in the disputed territory.

Following these developments, on Sunday President Barzani announced that he would not participate in the upcoming November 1 Presidential elections.

A letter read out for the President during the regional government’s parliamentary session stated: “As a Peshmerga, I will continue at the service of our people; I refuse to get any extension and will not continue in this position; law should not be amended for me.”

Aydin Maruf, a parliamentary member from the Iraqi-Turkmen Front, told Anadolu Agency that following a voting process it was later agreed to transfer the presidential duties of Masoud Barzani to the parliament and the Council of Justice.

Maruf also stated that the KRG’s Presidential Council had been abolished.

Earlier on Saturday evening, senior assistant to Barzani, Hemin Hawrami tweeted: “President Barzani called for Parliament / Presidential elections on 12/7 to be held on November 1. Parliament extended its work for two seasons.”

After the vote, a group of people stormed the regional parliament building, firing shots in the air as they made their way inside.

The group, which claimed to be supporters of Barzani’s KDP, chanted slogans in favor of Barzani and hurled stones at the Parliament building.

Following the independence referendum in northern Iraq on September 25, tensions have escalated between the central Baghdad administration and Erbil.

After the intervention of the Iraqi military forces in Kirkuk, a disputed area between KRG and Iraq, Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi ordered the government forces to suspend all military activities in disputed areas.

Iraqi forces secure 40 oil wells in Nineveh

On Saturday an Iraqi army officer confirmed that Iraqi federal forces have obtained 40 oil wells from the Kurdish Peshmerga forces in recent military operations.

Army Major Hammam al-Abdali told the Anadolu Agency that “Iraqi joint forces have managed to assert control over 40 out of 44 oil wells in recent military operations in the Zummar district of Tal Afar [west of provincial capital Mosul].”

“The central government has sent engineering crews specialized in operating oil wells to the area in order to maintain all extraction without interruption,” he said.

He added: “Iraqi forces are also providing protection for the engineering crews so the latter can carry out their responsibilities without encountering difficulties.”

During his region tour, which included stops in Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia and Turkey, Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi stated that the illegitimate referendum on Kurdish regional independence should be “entirely annulled” and not simply “suspended.”

Al-Abadi’s assertion came following the Kurdistan Regional Government’s proposal to “suspend” the referendum results in order to halt the military operations in Kirkuk.

“The referendum was held at a time when we were fighting a war against the Daesh terrorist group,” Al-Abadi said on the sidelines of a meeting in Tehran.

“We warned them [the KRG] not to hold the poll, but to no avail,” he said.

“Our ability to impose federal authority over all Iraqi territory is a victory for all Iraqi citizens,” he added. “We plan to bring all these areas under the authority of the [Iraqi] state.”

Further, Abadi claimed that “The only acceptable outcome is for the referendum results to be completely annulled and that they [the KRG] conform to the Iraqi constitution.”

In terms of relations between Iraq and Iran, al-Abadi called for stepped-up cooperation between the two, “with a view to serving our people and ending the interventions that have led to destruction and widespread displacement.”

He added: “We offer development as an alternative to the disputes and conflicts that have long plagued the states of the region.”

Following the independence referendum in Northern Iraq, the KRG had been subject to political and economic sanctions from regional and international actors.

Amid the military operation conducted by the central Baghdad administration in Kirkuk, the KRG administration proposed on Wednesday to freeze its illegal referendum in an attempt to halt the operations.

A statement published by the KRG read: “As Iraq and Kurdistan are faced with grave and dangerous circumstances, we are all obliged to act responsibly in order to prevent further violence and clashes between Iraqi and Peshmerga forces.”

Highlighting the clashes between the Iraqi and Peshmerga forces that erupted on October 16, 2017 the KRG stated: “Clashes have caused damage to both sides and could lead to a continuous bloodshed, inflicting pain and social unrest among different components of Iraqi society.”

“Certainly, continued fighting does not lead any side to victory, but it will drive the country towards disarray and chaos, affecting all aspects of life.”

In order to fulfill “our responsibilities and obligations towards the people of Kurdistan and Iraq,” the KRG proposed an immediate ceasefire and halt of all military operations, freezing the referendum results and starting an open dialogue with the Iraqi government on the basis of the Constitution.

Following the Kurdish independence referendum, political and economic sanctions have been imposed on the Masoud Barzani administration. On the basis of protecting Iraq’s territorial integrity, regional and international governments rejected the referendum, except Israel.

While the central Iraqi administration announced repeatedly that they do not recognize the referendum and interpreted it as a violation of the constitution, last week Iraqi forces entered Kirkuk amid the withdrawal of Peshmerga forces.

Successfully taking over Kirkuk, which has been a “disputed territory” and under the control of the Kurdish Peshmerga forces since 2014, Baghdad recently announced that they have sent reinforcement officers to Kirkuk in order to secure oil facilities in the northern city.

Speaking to Anadolu Agency, a local police officer, Capt. Hamed al-Obaidi stated that “Large police troops were dispatched to Kirkuk oil fields as part of a plan to secure oil facilities there.”

Al-Obaidi also confirmed that the Iraqi army will leave the task of securing the oil fields in Kirkuk to the police.

KRG welcomes US call for ceasefire

In response to the ongoing clashes in Iraq, especially since the referendum and the takeover of Kirkuk, the US State Department has called for both sides to cease violence.

On Friday State dept spokeswoman Heather Nauert stated that “The United States is concerned by reports of violent clashes around the town of Altun Kupri in northern Iraq,” adding that the US welcomed Iraqi Prime Minister Abadi’s instruction to federal forces to protect Iraqi Kurdish citizens and not to provoke them.

In response, the KRG welcomed this statement and in a statement claimed it was “ready to cooperate with an international coalition led by the US to support a ceasefire between Peshmerga and Iraqi forces.”

The KRG also added that it welcomed negotiations with Baghdad within the framework of the Iraqi constitution but without any preconditions.

While the loss of Kirkuk and oil fields in the province have been a major loss for the KRG, many have interpreted the KRG’s positive reaction to a ceasefire as a political weakness – such that calls for resignations have been made.

Calls for Barzani to resign

On Sunday The Kurdish Movement for Change (Gorran) Party called on President Barzani and Vice President Kosrat Rasul to resign from their posts.

Speaking at a news conference party spokesman Shorsh Haji stated: “They have to resign from their posts. At the same time, the Cabinet should also be abolished.”

Calling for the formation of a “national salvation government,” Haji added: “Our people have lost many of their achievements which they gained shedding their blood. Peshmerga [fighters] lost their grandeur. We lost many friendly countries. The reason for all of this is due to the failures of the party in power.”

Following the Kurdish independence referendum which was held in northern Iraq’s Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) controlled areas, the central Iraq administration have responded with political and economic sanctions.

In addition, with the withdrawal of the KRG-loyal Peshmerga fighters, Iraqi military forces have taken control of Kirkuk.

Following the military operation, on Thursday a Baghdad court issued an arrest warrant for Kosrat Rasul, vice-president of the KRG.

A statement released by Iraq’s Supreme Judicial Council read: “The Rusafa investigations court has issued an arrest warrant for Kosrat Rasul following the latter’s recent statements in which he referred to Iraqi Federal Police units in Kirkuk as ‘occupying forces.’”

“The court views Rasul’s statements as a kind of incitement against the Iraqi Armed Forces,” it added, noting that the arrest warrant has been issued in line with Article 226 of Iraq’s penal code.

On Wednesday Rasul, who is also a leading member of the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK), compared the recent “invasion” of Kirkuk by Iraqi forces – along with other disputed areas of Iraq – to the “Anfal operation.”

Here Rasul was referring to a series of ethnic cleansing campaigns carried out in northern Iraq by former President Saddam Hussein during the 1980s.

Oil fields in control of Baghdad administration

Confirming that the Iraq forces have re-gained control of the oil fields in Kirkuk, the Iraq Oil Ministry spokesperson Asim Cihad said: “The ministry now also holds oil wells and facilities in Kirkuk.”

Following this move, the Iraqi government asked British Petroleum (BP) to develop oil fields in Kirkuk.

The ministry called on BP to urgently make the necessary plans for developing Kirkuk’s oil fields, adding that the central government has the right to develop oil fields in all cities of Iraq.

While the Iraqi central administration and other regional and international actors have spoken out against the Kurdish independence referendum that was held on September 25 in KRG-controlled areas, different institutions within Iraq have diverged on their mutual stance on this issue.

On Wednesday an Iraqi court issued an arrest warrant for the head and members of the election commission responsible for the independence referendum.

Spokesperson for the High Judicial Council, Abdulstar Bayraqdar stated that “The Rusafa Investigation Court has issued an arrest warrant for the head and members of the commission who supervised the referendum in the Kurdistan region.”

He said that the warrant was issued after the National Security Council “filed a lawsuit arguing that the referendum was contrary to the decision of the High Federal Court.”

While an arrest warrant has been issued for the head and members of the election commission, Iraq’s Federal Court rejected a parliamentary request to rule on whether or not the participation of Iraqi Kurdish MPs in the poll violated the Constitution.

The Court issued a statement underlining that “The court is not competent to deliver a verdict – or give an advisory opinion – in this regard.”

“We have therefore dismissed the request [by parliament] as the issue remains outside our jurisdiction.”

Baghdad insists on the cancellation of the referendum

Following the independence referendum, while the Baghdad administration have emphasized they will not negotiate with Erbil unless the referendum vote is cancelled, the Kurdistan Regional Government administration insist they are ready for dialogue with Baghdad “without any preconditions.”

In a statement published by the KRG’s official website, the Kurdish administration also said that the sanctions imposed by the Iraqi central government in retaliation to the referendum were “unconstitutional” and that exacerbating tensions would benefit nobody.

After the referendum Baghdad banned all international flights to KRG-controlled areas and closed all foreign diplomatic missions based in the region

Barzani continues to seek the independence bid he initiated with nationalist and emotional arguments seemingly without any international support, at least on paper. Being one of the actors that has influence over Northern Iraq, the US, initially objecting to the referendum by underlining the timing, demanded it to be cancelled for the preservation of Iraq’s territorial integrity. Iran opposes the division of Iraq, which is already under its zone of influence, is against establishing new relations with northern Iraq and is against the newly formed state becoming an operations center for Israel. Turkey on the other hand is concerned that the post-referendum power-vacuum and instability will both strengthen the PKK and also harm its border security. While the independence initiative has been objected by various states from Europe to the Arab world for different reasons, it received the most open support from Israel.

While Israel backed the independence with both emotional and geopolitical discourses, Northern Iraq’s gratitude to Israel was also note-worthy. Prime Minister Netanyahu stated that he was in favor of the independence of Iraqi Kurds, whom he defined as “Western-oriented, brave and sharing common values.” Later, Ayelet Shaked, deputy of the settlement lobby’s representative Habayit Hayehudi Party and also the acting Minister of Justice expressed that Kurdish independence would be in the interest of Israel. Many articles written by experts in Israel also claimed that independence would benefit Israel.

History of the relations between Iraqi Kurds and Israel

The relations between Iraqi Kurds and Israel is not a new phenomenon. This relationship has both emotional and geopolitical dimensions to it – two factors which have been intertwined in most recent debates surrounding the Kurdish independence vote. Although kept undercover, relations between Israel and Iraqi Kurds go back to the mid-1960s. For years Israel supported Iraqi Kurds against the Saddam Hussein regime by providing military and financial aid. Due to the threat it perceived from Iraq, by utilizing the concept of a common enemy, Israel created a proxy out of northern Iraqi Kurds. While northern Iraq became its intelligence hub, Israel used both its own agents and Iraqi Kurds, who were able to infiltrate Iraq easier, as the main actors of its intelligence activities against Iraq. Before 1979 Israel supported Iraqi Kurds with their joint operations with Iran – namely, until the period up to the Iranian Revolution, an alliance was created between Israel, Iran and the Iraqi Kurds against the Saddam regime. After 1979, however, Israel used Iraqi Kurds as a means of intelligence against Iran. Being close to Iran and maintaining good contact with Iraqi Kurds in general, the northern Iraqi Kurds provided to be a useful partner for Israel against Iran. In other words, directing intelligence operations against Iran and Iraq from northern Iraq, Israel maintained a unique relationship with Kurds for a long period.

Israel’s “Peripheral Doctrine”

The alliance with Iraqi Kurds was actually a part of Ben Gurion’s “Peripheral Doctrine” – which amounted to one of Israel’s most fundamental foreign and strategic policies. Iraqi Kurds were one of the smaller yet prominent partners of this doctrine. As a result of alliances formed with non-Arab groups against common enemies, Israel maintained a close relationship with Kurds, Turkey, Iran and Ethiopia during different periods of time. Maintaining deep relations for a long time with Iran against the Saddam threat, Israel also preserved close military and intelligence relations with Turkey against a perceived common-enemy threat in the Middle East. Reaching its climax during the February 28 Process in 1997, this strategy brought Kurds and Israel closer around the common hostility towards the Saddam regime.

Currently, the idea that an independent “Kurdish state” would prove to be a useful buffer zone and base of operations against Iran is a crucial factor constituting Israel’s support for the independence bid. More precisely, it is observed that independence will institutionalize and guarantee the future of relations between northern Iraq and Israel. However, this thought is problematic due to the fact that Iran maintains a great amount of influence over northern Iraq and will continue to remain one of the most effective actors even in the case of a so-called independence.

This is because neither northern Iraq, Iraq nor Iran maintain the same conditions they did in the 1960s. In contrast to the Saddam era, Iraq and Syria have now become a proxy of Iran, which has allowed the later to expand as far as becoming neighbors with Israel. If the Iran-backed Syrian regime capture Deir ez-Zor, this will enable the rendering of the Tehran-Beirut line by the Iranian supported Shiite militia. In addition, due to the political divisions in the North, Iran has increased its political influence in Iraq. The Goran Movement and the PUK are in a strategic cooperation with Iran and for this reason Israel’s expected intelligence services will be more challenging than expected. Nevertheless, northern Iraq has the ability to provide Israel with geographic, social and political advantages over Iran that no other actor in the region will or is willing to provide. .

The emotional argument “a stateless people having a state” is inspired from the relation between the Jewish people and Israel. Yet this sensuality alone is not enough to explain the harmony between the Kurds and Israel as Israel has a stateless population right beside itself (Palestinians) to whom it denies independence. Besides their Western-oriented appearance, the usefulness of the Kurds (against Iraq and Iran) renders them reputable for Israel. In particular, increasing media attention in the west for the Kurdish fight against Daesh, and once again through the media, being perceived as a secular society increased the positive acceptance of Kurds within the Israeli public. Within its regional strategy, having been the least problematic actor of all that Tel Aviv has worked with is also related to the positive Israeli public perception of Iraqi Kurds. In particular, there is an emphasis on the maintenance of positive relations with Iraqi Kurds even during times when Israel’s relations with Turkey and Iran were tense.

Leaving emotional statements aside, Israel intends to transform northern Iraq into a base of operations against Iran and in particular against Iranian expansionism in the region. Israel’s greatest challenge in this undertaking will be Iran’s increasing influence in the region. Even if Israel does not reach its ultimate objective, any conflict to emerge between northern Iraqi Kurds and its neighbors will provide Israel with new operation opportunities, as did the post-occupation environment in Iraq.

Following the Kurdish independence referendum which took place on September 25, where residents in KRG-controlled areas were asked whether they wanted to separate from Baghdad, tensions have escalated between Erbil and the central Iraqi administration.

While the results of the referendum have been announced as 93 percent in favor, the Iraqi administration have repeatedly underlined that they do not recognize the result as it is an infringement on the Iraqi Constitution.

In addition to the central Iraqi administration, Turkey, Iran and the US have openly opposed the referendum, calling for the territorial integrity of Iraq.

In most recent developments, Prime Minister al-Abadi emphasized that “The central government is solely authorized to provide security in disputed areas [of Iraq].”

While according to Iraq’s 2005 Constitution, Kurdish Peshmerga forces are answerable to the central government in Baghdad, on the ground they take their orders from the Kurdistan Regional Government.

In regards to this, Al-Abadi said “I urge Peshmerga forces deployed in these areas to refrain from fighting federal government forces.”

Gold and oil: economic limits on the KRG

Increasing political and economic sanctions on the KRG following the independence vote, on Tuesday Iraqi authorities banned the import of gold and other precious metals through airports in the northern region.

Iraq Planning Ministry spokesman Abdul Zohra al-Hendawi stated that “The ministry’s economic committee has decided that, from now on, only Iraq’s Baghdad and Najaf airports will be used for the import of gold and other precious metals.”

He added that the decision was made in order to prevent the “illegal import” of gold into the country.

In addition, Turkey’s government is considering the decision they will take on whether to continue the KRG’s oil transfer through Turkey.

Speaking at the 8^th Turkey Energy Summit, Energy Ministry Undersecretary Fatih Donmez stated that while no decision has yet been made, the issue is currently on the agenda and is being examined.

He asserted that “We will decide on our stance based on instructions from the [Turkish] government. As of today, there is no decision yet, although this does not mean that there will not be one.”

Oil is a main asset of the KRG, and the regional government has enjoyed close ties with Ankara by using a pipeline stretching from northern Iraq to the Turkish Mediterranean port of Ceyhan in order to export oil.

However, following the independence referendum relations between Turkey and the KRG have deteriorated.

Similar to Iraq, 95% of whose economy depends on oil revenue, the Kurdistan Regional Government’s (KRG) economy is also heavily dependent on oil. Following Saudi Arabia, Iraq is the second largest crude oil producer of OPEC and the fifth country in terms of oil reserves. Important for the global energy markets, southern Iraq, which is oil-rich, is mostly controlled by the central government in Baghdad, while most of the oil reserves in the north are managed by the KRG. KRG officials claim that there is an oil reserve around 45 billion barrels in the region, including reserves of disputed regions like Kirkuk. In the case of independence, the KRG may become one of the top ten OPEC countries with such a reserve. However, it is a matter of concern whether the KRG will be able to maintain independent policies with an economy relying mostly on oil. Rather than being like Norway or Canada, an independent KRG is more likely to become an unstable country like Venezuela or Kuwait.

The KRG produces around 650,000 barrels of oil per day and 85% of this oil (approximately 550,000 barrels) is stored in Ceyhan through the pipeline. After the budget crisis with Baghdad in February 2014, in May the same year, the KRG began to directly export oil through Turkey. The revenue from oil exportation through Turkey allowed the KRG to compensate budgetary cuts and served as a life preserver for the sustainability of the current economic structure. In this respect, the KRG’s oil export to the global markets realized through Turkey continues to be vital for the regional government. Pre-Daesh conditions in which the price of oil was over US$110 per barrel had ensured economic prosperity in the region. However, security threats posed by Daesh, chaos and the declining oil prices along with refugees seeking shelter in the region, triggered an economic crisis that crashed like a tsunami on KRG’s shores.

The KRG’s Current Economic Structure and its Sustainability

Following the Iraqi central government’s initiation of the institutional reconstruction of the state, the KRG adopted a more liberal policy compared to other Middle Eastern states, including the Iraqi central government. By adopting a different foreign policy than the central government, the KRG provided many incentives to international energy corporations. Unlike the central government, the KRG implemented the “Investment Law” in July 2006, which came into effect in 2007, granting incentives to foreigners who wanted to invest in the region.

Treaties signed by the KRG for the survey and production of natural resources with international energy corporations reached a level which could only be achieved by an independent country. The KRG’s relations with international corporations over energy, which could be used as a trump card for independence, were perceived as a threat and risk by the Iraqi central government. While Baghdad implemented centralist policies to prevent a possible secession, Erbil continued to adopt economic and political policies that aimed to render the already autonomous KRG increasingly independent.

One of the most important elements of the dispute between the Iraqi central government and the KRG is natural resources. Debates over Kirkuk which is rich in terms of energy resources are a clear sign of this. As natural resources are an issue that concerns the sovereignty of both Erbil and Baghdad, it complicates reconciliation, making the share of oil a main issue between the two parties. The Iraqi central government seeks to increase centralization and ensure the KRG’s economic dependence in order to prevent a possible secession.

In order to diversify its economic structure which depends on oil revenue, the KRG has made significant investments in tourism. Indeed, Erbil was named the 2014 tourism capital by the Arab Council. Visited by 3 million tourists in 2013 before Daesh attacks, this number has now declined to less than a million. Underscoring stability and security to bolster tourism, the KRG was visited by 1.5 million tourists in 2016.

The KRG’s economy, which is dependent on consumption rather than production and dependent on oil revenues, is inherently unsustainable. The KRG has a consumer society that relies on import and therefore the development of the private sector and diversification of the economy through competition is hard to achieve in such a structure. The KRG’s public sector has a greater role in the economic structure: public expenses constitute over 50% of the KRG’s GDP.

Therefore, lack of national taxation, excessive subsidies provided to the people, the domination of the public sector, minimal private sector and patronage policies along with accusations of corruption indicate that the KRG is a classic example of a rent-seeking state. Even though the KRG is a classic rent-seeking state, its position is weaker in comparison to others; not having direct control over its natural resources and depending on the budget provided by Baghdad is the principal reason for this weakness.

Besides having an unnecessary and ineffective spoils system, there are deficiencies in industrial and agricultural production. Despite having fertile land, agriculture and light industry are also underdeveloped. This situation makes it harder for local producers to compete with exported goods. Heavily dependent on exports, the KRG procures raw materials and manufactured goods from neighboring countries such as Turkey and Iran. Within these circumstances, it was not possible for the KRG to sustain the potential to attract foreign investments – something that was achieved while the regional government was stable and oil prices were high.

Turkey-KRG Economic Relations

Iraq ranked third in Turkey’s exports with US$7.6 billion in 2016 – exportation to Iraq corresponds to 5.4% of Turkey’s total exports. Even though access to official figures is not possible, it is estimated that 70% of this export is realized with the KRG. Despite the objections of the central government, one of the world’s largest oil companies ExxonMobil’s oil agreement with the KRG that also covers disputed territories has caused Turkey to revise its approach towards the KRG. Following suit, many other prominent corporations like Chevron, Total and Gazprom Neft started to sign agreements with the KRG at the cost of risking their investments in other regions of Iraq. The idea that the KRG was to become one of the most prominent oil producers with ExxonMobil had a tremendous impact on this interest.

In the face of these events, Turkey chose to deepen economic relations and improve energy cooperation with the KRG. Having small and medium-sized enterprises within the KRG, Turkey encouraged these enterprises to be more active in the region while also incentivizing the construction of a pipeline, which would supply oil and natural gas to the global markets through Turkey. This increased the KRG’s dependence on Turkey. Thus, the KRG became the most prominent trade partner of Turkey; most of the companies and products being of Turkish origin in the KRG indicates the volume of trade between the two parties.

Having the third most investments in the KRG, Turkey differs from other countries due to the numerous projects it encounters in the region (currently 15). The high number is due to having many construction projects in the KRG. Meanwhile, the top four investors (United Arab Emirates, Lebanon, Turkey and the UK) constitute more than 90% of the investments made to the KRG in the last 10 years. Another important aspect is that Turkey dominates the KRG with approximately 1500 companies out of a total 3,000; UAE, Lebanon, the UK, US and Germany have around 100 companies each active in the region. Beside trade relations, Turkey has an important base in Iraq in terms of construction business.

Considering the impact of foreign trade on relations between Turkey and the KRG, the foreign trade volume with Iraq was lower than US$1 billion in 2003. However, after a decade, it has increased to US$12 billion in 2012. Despite the decline in foreign trade because of security issues and the emergence of Daesh, figures stood around US$9 billion in 2015 and 2016.

Effects of the Independence Referendum and the Future

The Kurdish independence referendum initiated by the KRG took place on September 25, 2017 and was deemed illegitimate by regional and international actors. This process, which may entail political risks and uncertainties in the region will have some possible effects on the global economy. As a result of the geopolitical risks realized by the Iraqi central government’s economic and political sanctions to the KRG and regional powers’ repudiation of the referendum, the price of oil has increased to US$60 per barrel. Therefore, the price of a prominent commodity that is demanded by numerous countries in the global energy market has reached its highest point in the last two years. Affecting global markets through oil prices, it is made clear that the KRG independence referendum has an impact on regional and international actors.

Relying on export and oil revenues, the KRG’s consumer economy causes numerous vulnerabilities. The importance of questioning an economic structure in which 1.5 million people are paid their wages by the government, along with implementing reforms required by the bureaucracy and business world has become much clearer for the KRG after the financial crisis.  Lacking a self-sufficient economic structure and full-fledged institutional order, the KRG will have a hard time in managing its own population and refugees within its territories. Iraq closing KRG’s airspace as its first sanction following the independence referendum, thus resulting in the cancellation of all international flights, poses a threat to travel and tourism industries in the KRG, which consists of 4,000 companies and 7,000 employees.

The KRG’s discourse and actions for independence are not deemed realistic by both regional and international actors, due to the fact that not only does the regional government suffer from a fragile and vulnerable economic structure, its political actors also have different expectations. It would be more realistic for Iraqi Kurds to seek a mechanism that would further regional reconciliation instead of interests of foreign actors, especially in such a time the Middle East needs stability and security. Above all, mending the damaged trust with Turkey and preventing further damage to long-term energy and trade cooperation is vital for the KRG.

Debates continue following the Kurdish independence referendum initiated by the Kurdistan Regional Government in northern Iraq.

On September 25 residents in KRG-controlled areas were asked whether they wanted to separate from Iraq. While results turned to be 93% in favor, the referendum lacks legitimacy due to the lack of international support. More, the referendum is a violation of the Iraqi Constitution.

While sanctions have been imposed on KRG by regional and international actors including Turkey, Iran and the central Iraqi administration, Israel is the only country that has openly welcomed the referendum.

Support from the Israeli government and the Barzani regime’s warmest welcome drew attention. In relation to this, veteran Kurdish politician and former leader of the Kurdistan Socialist Party, Mahmoud Othman, spoke to the Anadolu Agency.

In respect to the Israeli support for the referendum, Othman claimed that “nothing good would come” from Israeli support to the Kurdish cause, emphasizing that Israel simply wanted to “exploit” the Kurdish people.

While there has been literature published regarding the contacts and relations between Israel and the northern Iraqi Kurds, highlighting how Israel maintained Iraqi Kurds as a proxy against Iran, Othman stated that contacts between Israel and Iraqi Kurds first took place in the early 1970s.

Warning that “If Israel supports us, all the Arab states will stand against us,” Othman insisted that “We have nothing to gain [from Israeli support]. We don’t even share any borders with Israel.”

“For this reason,” he added, “I have urged Kurdish officials not to cooperate with Israel.”

Othman also slammed the appearance of Israeli flags during the celebrations that took place after the referendum results had been announced.

Describing the waving of Israeli flags during the rallies as a “mistake,” Othman underlined that “Now some countries of the region are claiming that we [i.e. the KRG] will be a second Israel.”

Baghdad to appropriate northern Iraq’s mobile phone networks

Following the referendum, the central Iraqi administration has retaliated within its own sovereignty, claiming that the referendum is illegitimate as it is a violation of the Constitution.

While the central government has refused to recognize the result and has emphasized that it will not be able to negotiate with the KRG unless they cancel the result, a statement released by the Prime Minister’s office announced plans to assume control of all mobile phone networks in northern Iraq’s Kurdish region.

The statement released by the office of PM Haidar al-Abadi read: “Iraq’s Council of Ministers has decided that all mobile phone networks [in the Kurdish region] should be brought under the control of the federal government.”

In addition to the appropriation of northern Iraq’s mobile phone networks, on Monday Iraq’s Council of Ministers also noted that legal procedures had been taken against all KRG employees involved in holding last month’s illegal poll.

On September 25 Iraqis residing in KRG-controlled areas in northern Iraq voted on whether to declare independence from Iraq.

While the referendum result was announced as 93% in favor, the international community criticized the Kurdistan Regional Government for holding the referendum. Only Israel has openly supported the initiative.

Following the referendum and following the death of former President Jalal Talabani, President of the KRG, Masoud Barzani called for dialogue between Baghdad and Erbil in order to solve issues with the central government.

“We will work to solve problems and differences with Baghdad through dialogue,” Barzani told reporters after he laid a blanket of flowers on the tomb of the former Iraqi President.

“We hope that Talabani’s death will be a chance for rapprochement between all political parties in the Kurdish region,” Barzani said.

Deal ‘non-binding’

Following calls from the KRG, on Saturday Barzani met with Allawi and al-Nujaifi in Sulaimaniyah for talks aimed at easing tension between the two administrations.

According to a statement released from Barzani’s office, the three leaders agreed on starting dialogue between Erbil and Baghdad in order to “calm the tense atmosphere” following the independence referendum.

The three also supposedly agreed on carrying out talks with an open agenda, agreed on lifting sanctions on Erbil and launching meetings between the two administrations as soon as possible.

While Iraqi Prime Minister Haidar al-Abadi called for the KRG to cancel the illegitimate referendum results, claiming that this is the only way talks between Baghdad and Erbil will begin, on Sunday the Iraqi Parliament also decided that an agreement reached between Barzani and Vice-President Ayad Allawi and Osama al-Nujaifi were not binding.

Saad al-Hadithi, a spokesman for the Prime Minister’s Office said in a statement that “the Iraqi administration will not recognize anything violating our Constitution and the attitude of the central government has not changed.”

The Kurdish independence referendum, initiated by Masoud Barzani in northern Iraq, has occupied the political agenda for a long while.

On September 25 Iraqis in the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) controlled areas were asked whether they wanted to declare independence from Iraq.

While the result of the referendum has been announced to be 93% in favour of independence, the international community, including the UN, US, Turkey and Iran refuse to accept the result.

Deeming the referendum as illegitimate, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu has once again claimed that it is not too late for the KRG to resolve the issue.

He insisted that the KRG should take necessary initiatives in order to cancel the result of the referendum “within the given time.”

He added: “If necessary steps are taken within that time, then ok, but if not, then the demands and steps [made by] the Iraqi administration will be an important criteria for us.”

While the referendum in northern Iraq has received worldwide criticism, Turkey’s presidential spokesman Ibrahim Kalin confirmed that Turkey’s objection was to the illegitimate referendum held by the KRG “not against the Kurdish people.”

During a live television interview, Kalin was also asked about President Erdogan’s visit to Iran.

Kalin confirmed that “We are on the same page with Iran on that issue [KRG referendum]. Protecting Iraq’s territorial integrity is not a thing that Turkey and Iran agree on. Practically the whole world thinks the same.”

Speaking at a joint news conference with his Iranian counterpart Hassan Rouhani in Tehran, Erdogan said: “What is the referendum organized by northern Iraq’s regional administration for? No country in the world apart from Israel recognizes it.”

Colonialist ambitions in the Middle East

In further comments regarding the independence referendum, President Erdogan said on Thursday that global colonialist groups were deploying the “divide and rule” strategy in the region.

During a meeting in Ankara the President said: “Our ancient geography has been going through a tough, painful and unsteady period in which the cards are being reshuffled and the maps are being reshaped.”

“Exactly like the past century, the motto for this century is ‘divide and rule.’ This strategy has been implemented successfully by global colonialist groups for many years.”

Further, he claimed that the purpose of this strategy was to divide Syria and Iraq along ethnic and sectarian lines in order to surround the south of Turkey.

In reference to the September 25 referendum, the President said: “Nothing has finished, everything has just started.”

Adding that an air embargo has been imposed on the Kurdish region, Erdogan stated that: “You have Iran on one side, Turkey in the north, Iraqi government in the south and Syria in the west. What will you do? Where will you go? How will you get out?”

“Who is giving advice to you? You have only Israel backing you. You put the former French foreign minister on your right and a Jewish Zionist on your left, and are working together on a table. They are not your friends… They are with you today and will disappear tomorrow.”

Source: AA and other agencies

Following the independence referendum that took place on September 25 in KRG-held areas, relations between the Erbil and Baghdad administrations have reached their ever-lowest point.

While receiving no international support, except from Israel, according to the results announced by the KRG, almost 93 percent of registered voters cast ballots in favor of independence.

Following the referendum many diplomatic, economic and military measures have been taken by Baghdad, Ankara and Tehran.

Earlier this week Iraq’s Prime Minister Haidar Al-Abadi warned the KRG against mobilizing their armed Peshmerga forces in the disputed northern province of Kirkuk.

Al-Abadi said: “I warn of the actions of the region’s military mobilization in Kirkuk, it is dangerous… The imposition of a status quo by force over the disputed areas is unacceptable.”

More, Al-Abadi called for a joint administration between the Iraqi government and the KRG over the disputed areas in Kirkuk under the leadership of the federal government in Baghdad, without giving further details on how this would work.

In addition to Al-Abadi’s comments and suggestions, on Tuesday the Iraqi Parliament adopted a bill that would force Baghdad to halt all financial transactions with the KRG.

The bill – which is now legally binding – was submitted by the Parliament’s financial committee.

While a large number of Iraqi-Kurdish lawmakers failed to attend the parliamentary session, the legislation was approved by a majority of assembly members.

Another decision the Parliament made concerns the Iraqi Kurdish MPs that voted in the illegitimate referendum.

During a press conference, Parliamentary Speaker Salim al-Jabouri requested the assembly’s legal committee to reveal the names of all Iraqi Kurdish MPs who cast ballots in the referendum.

According to al-Jabouri, lawmakers who took part in the illegitimate referendum will be referred to Iraq’s Federal Court, which will initiate legal proceedings against them if they were found to have violated Iraq’s constitution by casting ballots.

Al-Jabouri stated that “The Iraqi state is undergoing the greatest crisis in its history, which threatens the country’s unity and social fabric. Parliament is obliged to adhere to the Constitution and decisions issued [on the referendum].”

In reference to the crisis that is occurring in Iraq and emphasizing the importance of Iraq’s territorial integrity, Jordan’s King Abdullah II reaffirmed his country’s support for Iraq’s security, stability, territorial integrity and the cohesion of its people.

According to a statement issued by Jordan’s Royal Court, during a phone call with Haider Al-Abadi Abdullah stressed Jordan’s full support for the Iraqi government’s efforts in counterterrorism and launching a political process aimed at including all components of the Iraqi people, with a view to contributing to a secure, stable and unified Iraq.

Not too late for KRG to normalize relations

In echoing comments made by the governments of Turkey, Iran, U.S., and many western Europe states, Turkish opposition MHP leader Devlet Bahceli emphasized the importance of the territorial integrity of Iraq for the security of the wider region.

Claiming that the territorial integrity of Iraq is “indispensable for Turkey,” Bahceli called for the KRG President to give up his “ambition for independence.”

Post-referendum Iraq also maintained its place on the agenda of the President, as Recep Tayyip Erdogan stated that “Any incident taking place in Syria and Iraq is not independent from us, they are linked directly to our domestic affairs.”

Insisting that the referendum has done nothing but harmed KRG relations with the region and increased the likelihood of safe-zones for terrorist organizations including the PKK, YPG and Daesh, Erdogan emphasized that “The referendum crisis in northern Iraq is a new attempt to strike he heart of our region with a dagger.”

He once again criticized the KRG administration and stated that “we hope the northern Iraq administration comes to its senses soon.”

Calls for negotiations between Baghdad and Erbil have been raised from different countries across the region, and within this concern, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu claimed that it is “not too late” for the KRG to “step back.”

Re-instating that the referendum was “neither democratic, nor legal,” Cavusoglu expressed confidence in return to normal relations with the KRG if they correct the “mistake” they made.

The Minister stated, “It is not too late yet. The Barzani administration could take a step back. If the KRG corrects its mistake, then we can continue with our relations just as we did before the referendum took place.”

There is great joy in Erbil, celebrations and parades on the streets. Iraqi Kurds are exhilarated; they feel like they are progressing towards independence after the September 25 referendum. I was in Erbil right after the referendum and these were my first impressions. However, when I started to talk with people on the street and visit cities like Kirkuk and Sulaymaniyah a couple of days after the referendum, I observed that this mood was shifting. Exhilaration is replaced by unease. Threats of sanctions combined with sharp remarks by Ankara, Tehran and Baghdad along with attacks and escalated tensions in Kirkuk are making people think about what kind of an adventure they have embarked. Everyone is talking about where this is going; the fear of losing all that is achieved could be felt in the air. All people, from the person on the street to politicians, believe that Western countries and Israel will protect them. They aren’t afraid of expressing this openly; however, the look in their eyes, the anxiety indicates that this belief isn’t strong.

Ultimately, the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) led by Masoud Barzani and KDP was able to hold the referendum on September 25 in regions including the disputed areas. The timing along with the realization of the referendum despite all regional and international objections raise some questions. The international legitimacy was derived from the balance of domestic politics, consolidating regional authority and Baghdad’s vulnerability combined with fighting against Daesh. Assessing the situation rationally, it seems that opportunities provided by the political conjuncture triggered KRG’s quest for independence. Yet, I’m questioning the existence of other factors that were effective in the referendum process; whether an ecstasy caused by late ethic nationalism and overconfidence or the manipulation of certain international forces, that I don’t know. Nevertheless, they suffered from an eclipse of reason that blinded them to the threats they were to face.

What now?

Even though KRG was prepared for the reactions following the referendum to an extent, it seems that they couldn’t calculate the collective reaction from Baghdad, Tehran and Ankara. They are trying to relieve tensions with Turkey by making some positive remarks regarding the country. Moreover, they are running an international campaign on why KRG’s independence bid must be supported by implying that they play a prominent role against Daesh and have the potential to further Western interest in the region. On the other hand, they are trying to gain the US and EU’s protection by suggesting that Kurds are under a ruthless siege by three countries.

Meanwhile, Erbil is seemingly open to political resolutions and negotiations with Baghdad while refraining from conflict. However, the statements made by Barzani indicate that these negotiations will only be about managing the independence process, which Ibadi has clearly rejected. My observations from the field suggest that Turkey, Iran and Iraq could force KRG to act in a way that doesn’t infringe Iraq’s territorial integrity by creating realpolitik dynamics that could impede their quest for independence, if not completely rendering it irrelevant, through coordinated efforts. The politics of sanction is prominent in this respect; with political, economic and military sanctions, KRG could be forced to negotiate with Baghdad.

Turkey has a number of trump cards in this matter. While establishing correspondence with Iran and Iraq, Turkey should develop a careful strategy that would not allow KRG to fall completely into the area of influence of Tehran-Baghdad. Without severing ties with KDP, Turkey should consolidate its relations with other actors that are critical of the referendum. Turkey should also refrain from seemingly targeting the local populace, keeping the existing sympathy towards Turkey intact. More importantly, however, Turkey should seek opportunities to constrain PKK during this new engagement with Baghdad. Along with searching for a common ground resolution for the Sinjar region, Turkey should break the line between PYD/YPG and KRG, while establishing an alternative border checkpoint to Habur. Moreover, Turkey should persuade Baghdad to protect the rights of Turkmens in Iraq, especially those in Kirkuk.

Following the KRG-initiated Kurdish independence referendum, which took place in KRG-controlled areas in northern Iraq, the U.S. has re-emphasized that it is willing to act as a negotiating power between Erbil and Baghdad.

While criticized by the international community – Turkey, Iran, U.S. and UN were against the referendum – according to the Anadolu Agency, official preliminary results revealed that 93 percent of voters backed the independence.

On Thursday State Department spokeswoman Heather Nauert told reports that “The United States, if asked, would be willing to help facilitate a conversation between the two [Erbil and Baghdad].”

Reiterating that the U.S. would only act as a mediating factor if asked, Nauert added “But I want to be clear about that – if asked. If we were asked to assist in any way.”

Following the outcome of the vote, later on Thursday the Iraqi Foreign Ministry announced that the UN offered to mediate between Iraq’s central government and the KRG.

Following a meeting with the UN Iraq Envoy Jan Kubis, in a statement Iraqi Foreign Minister Ibrahim Jaafari stated that he was told “The UN is ready to help you solve the problem with the KRG. The international community supports the territorial integrity of Iraq.”

The statement added that “Iraq has become the center of attention for the whole world, especially after its victory against the Daesh terrorist organization.”

Jaafari called for the UN to play a more effective role in Iraq and pointed out that all Iraqi provinces contributed to the country’s fight against Daesh, which showed sectarian and ethic unity inside Iraq.

Bringing Turks home

Following the decision announced by the Turkish Consulate in Erbil that flights from Turkey to northern Iraq would be suspended as of Friday, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said that the government would help citizens to leave the KRG region.

“We will use all means available to help our citizens who want to return to Turkey.”

Cavusoglu reminded that the Turkish government had issued travel warnings for Turkish citizens prior to the referendum.

The Foreign Minister added that “We may send planes with special permission [to evacuate the citizens] in the coming period. The decision [whether to stay or leave] of our citizens is important.”

While prior to the referendum countries such as US and Turkey made it clear that the independence referendum initiated by the Barzani family-run Kurdistan Regional Government was illegitimate, calls from the international community continue post-referendum.

German Foreign Minister Sigmar Gabriel criticized the KRG for ignoring calls from the international community and for holding a referendum on the region’s future without the agreement of the central Baghdad administration.

In a statement, referring to the ongoing contest between Erbil and Baghdad on contested areas, including the oil-rich city of Kirkuk, Gabriel said that “the referendum has no binding effect, particularly with respect to the disputed territories.”

“We are calling on all sides to avoid further escalation and to refrain from unilateral steps towards independence or coercive measures.”

Gabriel called for dialogue between the two Iraqi administrations in order to address and negotiate on existing issues.

Russia joins rejection

In addition to Germany, on Tuesday Russia reiterated its support for the territorial integrity of states in the Middle East.

According to Russia’s official TASS news agency, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov stated that “Russia’s position has not changed: We continue to believe that preserving the territorial and political integrity of states is extremely important for maintaining stability and security in the region.”

Peskov informed that Putin had discussed the recent referendum with Erdogan and Hassan Rouhani by phone on Monday.

Putin and Erdogan will meet on Thursday in Turkey, Ankara, where they are expected to discuss bilateral relations and regional developments.

Arab League discomfort

On Tuesday a statement by the Arab League renewed calls for Iraqis to heal rifts and to engage in dialogue under Arab and international guarantors to resolve contemporary issues.

The League’s Secretary-General Ahmed Abul-Gheit said that “it’s still possible to contain repercussions of this [referendum] if concerned parties acted with wisdom and responsibility.”

Without specifying, he criticized efforts by some to fuel division and conflict in the region.

Abul-Gheit stated that the “interests of the Kurdish people in Iraq will only be achieved within a unified, federal, democratic Iraq based on respect of the Constitution, equality and citizenship.”

While KRG President Barzani has stated that the outcome of the referendum will not result in an automatic declaration of independence but with further negotiations with Baghdad, many have criticized him for risking the stability of the region for his own political safety.

While once a close ally with the Kurdistan Regional Government, the Turkish administration had urged the Kurdish administration to postpone the referendum and sit at a negotiating table with the Baghdad government.

The US has also maintained this position, claiming the independence referendum will harm the fight against terrorism in the Middle East.

Turkish President Erdogan has called the independence referendum as a “betrayal” emphasizing that “You will be left in the middle anyway, from the moment we start implementing sanctions.” “It will be finished when we close a valve. All your income is over.”

The decision to hold the referendum has not only diminished relations with Turkey but also with Iran, that the country has already closed its border with northern Iraq.

Speaking in Ankara, President Erdogan said “the moment that [Turkish] trucks do not work in northern Iraq, they will not be able to find food and clothes.”

He added, “Frankly, we did not give credence until the last moment that Barzani would make a mistake like this.”

“This means that we were wrong. The decision, which was taken without a prior consultation or meeting, is a betrayal to our country in an era where our relations were at their best level in history.”

The President re-iterated comments that he made earlier, claiming that the referendum was unconstitutional and lacked international support.

The only country recognizing and supporting the idea of an independent Kurdistan is Israel. Concerning this, the President asked “Who will accept your independence? Israel? But the world is not constituted only of Israel.”

In regards to Israel being the only country supporting the referendum, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu also stated that “Israel’s support alone will not be enough for the KRG. No one’s support will be enough. No one will side with them the next day.”

In an interview aired live on 24 TV news networks, Cavusoglu re-emphasized that “saying ‘we support Iraq’s territorial integrity’ is not a statement in vain. If Iraq appeals to Turkey with such a request, we will provide support to Iraq for protecting its territorial integrity.”

The Foreign Minister had already warned the KRG administration that if any Turkmen residents in the disputed territories are targeted that the Turkish military will intervene.

In most recent deelopments, Turkey’s General Consulate to Erbil announced on Wednesday that from Friday 29 September onwards, flights to and from Turkey from Erbil and Sulaymaniyah will be paused.

The statement released informed that this matter includes Turkish Airlines, AtlasGlobal and Pegasus – Turkish companies that operate flights from and to northern Iraq.

The maneuver comes as the KRG refused to hand over airports to the Baghdad administration.

Despite official results yet to be announced, the Kurdistan Regional Government’s leader Masoud Barzani has already claimed victory in the independence referendum.

In his first official statement after the referendum, Barzani announced that the referendum was not designed to create obstacles for neighboring countries.

Released on the KRG Presidency’s official website, Barzani said that the KRG had now entered “a new stage” following the majority of Yes votes in the poll.

Following the vote he urged Baghdad not to close its doors to dialogue and “to seriously and calmly review the history of bilateral relations.”

He said that Erbil and Baghdad must now “resort to serious series of dialogues,” and requested neighboring countries to help the two Iraqi sides in finding solutions.

The statement on the website also added that “as for the other neighboring countries, we do not wish for any obstacles to be created. It is rather expected of them to seriously find solutions to the issues between Erbil and Baghdad.”

While the international community, with the exception of Israel, refuse to recognize the poll, Barzani’s statement asserted that “We also reassure the international community that we are immediately ready to engage in negotiations on independence with Baghdad.”

Barzani also highlighted his administration’s “willingness to continue to become an effective partner in the global effort to eradicate the terrorists.”

Kurdish referendum to harm Kurdish citizens

As the vote continues, Iraqi lawmakers have already begun to lobby to sack President Fuad Masum and several Kurdish MPs.

MP Hassan Khalati said on Tuesday that signatures are being collected by lawmakers in order to sack Masum, a Kurd, for “failing to respect his oath of office.”

Khalati, a member of the National Alliance bloc, told Anadolu Agency that “Masum was sworn in to maintain the unity of Iraq and his non-compliance with that means he failed to abide by his oath.”

MP Asma al-Moussawi also called on the Iraqi government to take action against Kurdish officials as she claimed that “there is no need for the presence of Kurdish MPs in Parliament since they supported the [independence] referendum.”

On Monday the Iraqi Parliament passed a resolution forcing the government to re-deploy troops to disputed areas, including the oil-rich Kirkuk.

Over the course of debate surrounding the Kurdish independence referendum proposed by the Kurdistan Regional Government’s leader Masoud Barzani, countries such as Turkey, the U.S. and the U.K. have spoken out against such an independence, emphasizing the importance of Iraq’s political sovereignty and territorial integrity.

In criticizing the referendum, the U.S. State Department spokeswoman Heather Nauert stated that “we believe this step will increase instability and hardships for the Kurdistan region and its people.”

More, she added that “the fight against ISIS is not over, and extremist groups are seeking to exploit instability and discord. We believe all sides should engage constructively in a dialogue to improve the future of all Iraqis.”

Following announcements from the State Department, White House spokeswoman Sarah Huckabee-Sanders told reporters that “we hope for a unified Iraq to annihilate ISIS, and certainly a unified Iraq to push back on Iran.”

Emphasizing the importance of ensuring Iraq’s political sovereignty and territorial integrity, the U.K. Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson also made comments refusing to accept the results of the referendum.

In a statement released by the Foreign Office, Johnson said that the UK “does not support the referendum” held by the KRG and that the UK “continues to back the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Iraq.”

Johnson said that alongside international allies they have proposed an alternative plan for negotiations between the central Baghdad government and the KRG to address all issues of dispute.

Criticizing the KRG for ignoring calls for negotiations, the British secretary emphasized that “the long-term security and prosperity of Iraq and Iraqis can only be met through dialogue and cooperation,” urging “all sides to refrain from provocative statements and actions in the aftermath of the referendum.”

Highlighting the negative affect the referendum is going to have on the fight against terrorism in the region, Johnson made it clear that “the priority must remain the defeat of Daesh and returning stability to liberated areas.”

World watch dog disappointed

The UN has also been on the side of calling for Erbil to negotiate with Baghdad.

However, following the failure to do so, a spokesman for the UN Secretary General said that Antonio Guterres “regrets that the opportunity for serious negotiations to resolve outstanding issues between the Government of Iraq and the Kurdistan Regional Government, based on the Constitution and in a spirit of partnership and mutual respect, were not fully seized prior to this move.”

The referendum, which was boycotted by Turkmens and Arabs residing in the KRG-controlled provinces, was held in Erbil, Dohuk and Sulaymaniyah, the contested province of Kirkuk, Tuz Khurmau district in Saladin province and Khanaqin district in Diyala province.

While the voter turnout of the referendum was 72 percent, the final results are expected to be released within 3 days.

In spite of calls from various leaders all over the world, including Erdogan, Trump, and French President Macron, the KRG President Masoud Barzani chose to go ahead with the independence referendum.

The voters in KRG-held areas vote today, Monday 25 September, on whether to secede from Iraq.

As the vote continues to take place, Iraq Parliament’s speaker Salim al-Jubouri has made it clear that the results of the Kurdish referendum will not be legally binding.

Highlighting the intention of protecting Iraq’s territorial integrity, in a statement Jubouri said that “We [the Baghdad administration] are keen on keeping the Kurds in our homeland.”

Further, he stated that “The unity of Iraq is our main concern and we will not give it up,” going on to blame “wrong policies” for the current state of tension.

Against claims made by Barzani, Jubouri said that “the referendum will affect the upcoming election and will drag the country in a new phase.”

Iran closes border with Northern Iraq

The Iranian President Hassan Rouhani has also come out strong against the referendum, stating that Iraq has his country’s full support for actions necessary to preserve its unity.

According to a written statement by Iraq’s Prime Minister’s office, during a phone call with PM Haider Al-Abadi, Rouhani “stressed his country’s full support for the Iraqi government and all its steps that had taken to preserve Iraq’s unity and territorial integrity.”

“Al-Abadi affirmed the Iraqi government’s efforts to complete the liberation of all Iraqi territory from Daesh’s terrorist gangs, which is a priority for them.”

The statement continued: “Al-Abadi stressed the government’s clear stance to prevent unilateral and unconstitutional procedures that threaten the unity of Iraq, peaceful coexistence among the people of the country, rejection of the referendum and will not deal with its results.”

Following this phone call, the Foreign Ministry of Iran has announced that it has closed its border with northern Iraq’s Kurdish region on Monday.

A day earlier, Tehran ended flights between the territories.

During a news conference in Tehran, Ministry spokesman Behram Qasimi said that “At the request of Iraq, we have closed the airspace and ground borders with the Kurdish Regional Government.”

Not only Turkey and countries in the Middle East including Iran and the Baghdad government, but the US has only spoken out largely against the proposed referendum in northern Iraq.

The Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) led by Masoud Barzani have insisted on continuing with the vote, which is due to take place on 25 September, asking the KRG-controlled areas whether they want to break from Baghdad.

The oil-rich province of Kirkuk is among the contested areas where the vote is planned.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan repeated his call on the KRG to reverse its decision to hold the referendum in a speech made on Wednesday.

During an interview with Bloomberg Editor-in-Chief John Micklethwait, at the Bloomberg Business Form in New York City, Erdogan stated that “I hope that they return from this erroneous decision and continue as the Kurdish Regional Government.”

Erdogan said that Turkey would respond with sanctions if next week’s referendum went ahead.

US calls for talks between Erbil and Baghdad

While Turkey’s opposition is mainly drawn from the fight against terrorism and the territorial integrity of Iraq, the US government has also opposed the referendum on the basis that it is not the right time.

While known to be a long-time advocate of Kurdish autonomy, the State Department issued a strongly-worded statement opposing the referendum.

The statement highlighted that “the United States strongly opposes the Iraqi Kurdistan Regional Government’s referendum on independence,” adding that “all of Iraq’s neighbors, and virtually the entire international community, also oppose this referendum.”

“The United States urges Iraqi Kurdish leaders to accept the alternative, which is a serious and sustained dialogue with the central government, facilitated by the United States and the United Nations, and other partners, on all matters of concern, including the future of the Baghdad-Erbil relationship.”

The department repeated that the referendum would preclude the possibility of negotiations with the Baghdad central government and present a high cost for “all Iraqis, including Kurds.”

The statement cited potential disruptions in the fight against Daesh, which the KRG’s Peshmerga forces support, as well as worsening trade relations with neighbors and the destabilizing nature of holding the referendum in internationally disputed areas.

The US has maintained its position of “genuine dialogue,” which it believes promises to resolve Iraq Kurds’ grievances and establish a new course in Baghdad-Erbil relations.

While Turkey and the US have opposed the referendum, Israel has welcomed the decision, as it perceives an independent Kurdistan in the Middle East as an end to its own isolation.

Last round of negotiations before referendum

Responding to calls made by Turkey and the US, the KRG have announced that a high-level delegation will visit Baghdad within the next 48 hours in order to discuss outstanding differences between Baghdad and Erbil – the KRG’s administrative capital.

According to a statement released by the office of Iraqi President Fuad Masum, KRG President Barzani has agreed to send a high-level KRG delegation to Baghdad on Thursday or Friday.

Earlier on Wednesday, Masum and Barzani met in the northern city of Sulaymaniyah, where they discussed regional developments and the upcoming poll.

Following the meeting, a statement released by Masum’s office said that “both men stressed the need for constructive dialogue to resolve outstanding points of contention [between Baghdad and Erbil].”

“With this in mind, they decided to dispatch a high-level [KRG] delegation to Baghdad within the next two days,” the statement added.

Masum arrived in Sulaymaniyah on Wednesday morning where he urged the KRG officials to postpone next week’s poll and resolve outstanding differences between the two sides through dialogue.

The success of negotiations will decide on the future of Iraq’s territorial integrity and security.

Iraq has lately been the focal point of world politics due to the discussions regarding the Iraqi Kurdistan independence referendum, which has been urged by the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG). Apparently, no country in the region other than Israel supports the referendum. Iraqi Kurdistan President, Masoud Barzani’s insistence on holding the referendum has even played a role in converging Ankara, Baghdad and Tehran administrations.

While it is more than natural for the referendum to be discussed within Turkish media circles due to the territorial proximity with Iraq, the discussions conducted often go too far as policy recommendations that will strain Turkey are made. Within these discussions many facts are distorted and this unavoidably leads to growing confusion within the public. Due to this reason, it is crucial to clearly answer and understand the question as to what Turkey desires and expects from Iraq.

First, the leading subject matter Turkey pays attention to within its Iraq policy is preventing the outlawed PKK and other terror groups from using the country’s territory. The fundamental reason for Ankara’s close interest in Iraq is due to the country’s failure to ensure security within its own territory and its failure to prevent the PKK’s deployment in northern Iraq. Maintaining a successful fight against the PKK within its own borders, Turkey primarily confronts Iraqi territory when it concentrates on cutting off the external sources of the terrorist organization.

As Baghdad and Arbil cannot or do not impede Qandil’s employment as the PKK headquarters, where the terror attacks against Turkey have been plotted for years, the PKK aspires to expand its domain to Sinjar by taking advantage of the upheaval stirred by Daesh. The PKK’s rising influence in Iraqi territory inevitably increases Turkey’s interest in the country. If the PKK seizes territory in Iraq or Syria, Turkey’s fight against the terror group will have a poor chance to succeed. Therefore, Ankara’s fight against the PKK begins from Iraqi and Syrian territories and extends to as far as Germany, Belgium and even the United States.

The second most important aspect of Turkey’s Iraq policy is the protection of the country’s territorial integrity. Considering the current Iraqi Constitution, it can be stated that the KRG’s insistence on independence is far from being rational. This is due to the fact that the KRG is quite influential in the country’s administration, as it rules federated areas with its autonomous parliament and government and has its own armed forces. This venture Barzani has undertaken in order to guarantee the political future of his own family, as he is cornered in domestic politics, is likely to bring a series of devastating consequences to the entire Middle East. Therefore, Ankara objects to the independence referendum to avert such a ravage.

http://thenewturkey.org/the-kurdish-quest-for-independence-in-iraq-and-its-repercussions-for-turkey-and-the-region/

Moreover, the third important feature of Turkey’s Iraq policy is the protection of Iraq’s independence. This goal means objecting to turning the Baghdad government into a puppet controlled by Tehran or Washington. The Iraqi government’s increasing reliance on the United States or Iran leads to developments that upsets the delicate balance between Shia Arabs, Sunni Arabs, Kurds and Turkmens in the country, and certainly leaves the country in constant chaos. The uprising of Sunni Arabs and the subsequent rise of Daesh following the extreme Iran-focused policies of the Maliki period can be drawn as a reflective example to this.

In addition, guaranteeing the rights of Turkmens is another subject Turkey attaches importance to as part of its Iraq policy. The Turkmens in Iraq regard Turkey as a guarding power regardless of their sects, which lays an extra burden on Ankara.

The final objective that stands out in Turkey’s Iraq policy is sustaining and improving economic cooperation with the country. During the tenure of the Justice and Development Party (AK Party) governments, the approach that lays emphasis on economic cooperation in the context of relations with other countries, especially neighbors, has also been effective in the relations with Iraq. In this framework, Iraq has become Turkey’s third largest export market. Considering that a great deal of this export is made to the KRG region, it becomes more understandable that Ankara would not wish to jeopardize its relations with the Arbil administration. However, due to the above-stated security concerns, the main determinants of Turkey’s Iraq policy have inevitably been the PKK question and Iraq’s territorial integrity.

Iraq’s Kurdish Regional Government (KRG) is set to hold an independence referendum next week, which has drawn severe criticism from both Turkey and the US.

Residents in provinces controlled by the KRG are due to vote on September 25 on independence from Baghdad.

The oil-rich province of Kirkuk is among the contested areas where the vote is planned.

Regardless of calls for negotiations before the referendum, Barzani has announced that he will not be able to agree terms with Baghdad.

The KRG President continuously called for Baghdad to provide an alternative to the referendum if the Iraqi government wanted to see the referendum postponed. However, recent announcements are in directions that suggest the two parties will only sit together after the referendum has occurred.

Barzani stated that “Baghdad has failed to provide alternative solutions,” so therefore “we will sit at a negotiating table after the referendum.”

He also added that becoming a full autonomous state “can take up to two years.”

The central government of Iraq is opposed to the poll, claiming that it would affect the war against Daesh, cause instability and violate the Iraqi Constitution.

The referendum was also on the agenda during the 72^nd session of the UN General Assembly. During his speech, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan called on northern Iraq’s KRG to suspend its referendum for independence, stating that it would further engender instability in the region.

Baghdad and the regional government need to achieve compromises “on the basis of territorial integrity and the realization of the ideals to build a common future,” Erdogan told UN members.

“Steps such as demands for independence that can cause new crises and conflicts in the region must be avoided,” he said.

Potential sanctions

Following his speech at the UN, talking to reporters, Erdogan also warned of sanctions against the KRG if they intend to proceed with the planned referendum.

“We have always supported” the KRG, Erdogan told reporters. “We think this approach of theirs amounts to ignoring the Republic of Turkey, which has stood by them and counted them as a close ally.”

“The cabinet will undoubtedly evaluate this situation and assess possible sanctions, which will not be ordinary,” he warned.

The proposed independence referendum by the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) is due to take place on Sept 25 regardless of criticism by regional and other governments.

Residents in provinces controlled by the KRG are due to vote on independence from Baghdad.

The oil-rich province of Kirkuk is among the contested areas where the vote is planned.

In light of all developments, last week Iraqi lawmakers voted to remove Kirkuk’s renegade governor, Najmiddin Karim, from office.

The parliamentary vote was based on a request by Iraqi Prime Minister Haidar al-Abadi.

In response, Kirkuk’s provincial council condemned the decision and council head Ribwar al-Talabani stated that “Karim was elected and confirmed in his position by the provincial council and only the council has the authority to remove him.”

Despite the parliamentary decision, Karim is yet to leave office.

The parliamentary vote was prompted by an August 29 decision by Kirkuk’s provincial council to include the disputed province in the referendum.

The decision triggered an uproar in Bagdad and calls by Iraqi politicians and MPs to remove Karim from office.

Further in relation to the referendum, on Monday, the Supreme Court of Iraq ruled to suspend all activities related to the referendum until it could determine the poll’s constitutionality.

Meanwhile, KRG leader Masoud Barzani has stated that a “yes” vote would not initiate an automatic declaration of independence but would lead to further negotiations with Baghdad.

Barzani insists on referendum

Regardless of calls from Turkey and the US to postpone the referendum, Barzani has said that the poll will not be postponed unless a viable alternative is conformed.

The referendum on Kurdish regional independence will not be postponed unless Baghdad can offer an “alternative arrangement” that would also guarantee the rights of the region’s Kurds, Barzani said on Tuesday.

President Trump has called for negotiations between Baghdad and the KRG, which he claimed the US would lead.

Speaking at a campaign rally in the city of Soran in northern Iraq’s Erbil province, Barzani said the poll’s primary goal was to “show the world that we want independence.”

“We are open to hearing alternatives [to the referendum],” he said. “But in the absence of any such alternatives, the planned [Sept. 25] referendum is set to go forward.”

Barzani stressed during his speech that the KRG’s problem was not with the international community but with Baghdad, and therefore the referendum could not be postponed unless Baghdad reach an alternative.

However, he added, any such alternative arrangement “would have to be guaranteed by the international community, including the U.S. and the EU.”

He went on to give Baghdad “two or three days” in which to propose an alternative scenario.

“Otherwise,” he continued, “we will head to the polls on Sept. 25.”

“Erbil wants independence,” Barzani declared, “not ministerial portfolios or budget allocations.”

The independence referendum for Kurds in northern Iraq is set to take place on September 25 despite international disapproval. Masoud Barzani, leader of the Kurdistan Regional Government insists on pursuing the referendum knowing that neither Turkey nor the United States support the decision.

Ankara and Washington

There have been many arguments as to why the two countries do not support the proposed independence referendum. While the US has been a long advocate of Kurdish autonomy, President Trump has stated that the timing of the referendum is wrong and that it will negatively affect the fight against Daesh. Moreover, he has called for the KRG to maintain diplomatic dialogue with Baghdad, something the US is willing to lead and observe.

Being a neighbor, the independence referendum will have a highly significant impact on the domestic and foreign politics of Turkey. Not only due to regional stability depending on the territorial integrity of Iraq, the domestic fight against the PKK also has the ability to be shaped by the independence referendum in northern Iraq. While relations between the KRG and Turkish state have been maintained on stable levels, the potential fear of the PKK hijacking an independent Kurdish state has always remained salient. Continuous remarks and warnings have been issued against the KRG from both President Erdogan and Prime Minister Yildirim, urging the KRG to defect from their decision to hold the planned referendum.

United Nations

Other than Turkey and the US, the United Nations Secretary General has also warned against the Iraqi Kurdish referendum. Gutteres stated that the unilateral decision to hold the independence vote ‘would detract from the need to defeat Daesh,’ underlining the worries of Turkey and the US.

“The Secretary-General believes that any unilateral decision to hold a referendum at this time would detract from the need to defeat ISIL, as well as the much-needed reconstruction of the regained territories and the facilitation of a safe, voluntary and dignified return of the more than three million refugees and internally displaced people,” Stephane Dujarric said in a statement, referring to the Daesh militant group.

Iraq

With the unilateral territory and sovereignty of Iraq at stake, Vice President Nouri al-Maliki warned the KRG of creating a ‘second Israel’ in northern Iraq. Israel has been the most prominent country in support of the referendum, as it sees a Kurdish state as an end to its own isolation in the region.

With the latest developments, the Iraqi Supreme Court has ruled to suspend the Kurdish referendum on Monday 18 September until it makes a final ruling on the case at the request of Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi.

The office of the Iraqi PM Abadi said that he filed the court case against Kurdish President Masoud Barzani and the Kurdish parliament speaker Yousif Mohammed.

The statement said Abadi called on the court to not allow “any region or province to separate from Iraq.”